Even with dissension in New England, there’s not many who will predict a new AFC East champion for 2018.
This is still the Patriots’ division to lose and oddsmakers are in total agreement.
New England is tied with a handful of other teams with an over/under of 10.5 in win totals entering 2018, which is a far better number for bettors than last year’s 12.5 over/under (which New England went over).
Last year, I tallied a 1-3 record in predicting win totals for the AFC East, coming off a respectable 3-1 record the previous year. Here’s the best bets for the 2018 season.
New England Patriots, over/under 10.5
Last I checked, Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski still suit up for the Patriots. Oh, and Bill Belichick is still roaming the sidelines.
That automatically gives New England a winning record, so this is really good value for a team coming off another Super Bowl appearance.
The defense in 2018 should be improved from last year’s second-worst unit, according to yards per play allowed. It’s amazing to have such a bad defense and still win 13 games. With a better defense and an offense that is still humming, the Patriots will overcome the off-field issues to at least win 11 games. — Verdict: Over 10.5
Miami Dolphins, over/under 5.5
There’s not much love for the other teams in the AFC East.
The Dolphins underachieved last season, but I have to believe the quarterback position held them back a bit. Ryan Tannehill isn’t a top-tier option, but he’s more useful than an aging, disinterested Jay Cutler.
Overall, the team was very average in 2017, much like in 2016 when the ball bounced their way a few more times and they made the playoffs. The 2018 roster looks better, especially on the defensive side of the ball.
Miami can be sneaky this year, with a developing receiving corps and a running back in Kenyan Drake that I anticipate will only get better. As long as the offensive line can hold up, this team can make it to at least 8-8. Verdict: Over 5.5
Buffalo Bills, over/under 6.5
After chugging their way to nine wins a year ago, the betting public is throwing up major shade toward Buffalo in 2018.
And with good reason.
The Bills weren’t extraordinary in any facet of football in 2018. They had a few balls bounce their way, allowing an offense that ranked 30th and a defense that ranked 14th in yards per play to make it to the playoffs.
The defense has to have turnovers to make an impact on the game and the offense is more than underwhelming again. The Bills resemble more of a 6-10 team than the 9-7 team they were a year ago. Verdict: Under 6.5
New York Jets, over/under 6.5
Todd Bowles is one of the better coaches in the NFL. The problem in this situation isn’t him.
It’s the roster.
The Jets employ one of the worst rosters in the NFL. They’re young and absent any reliable playmakers.
That creates a major hurdle to get to seven wins in a season.
New York will win some games based on Bowles being the coach. But it won’t be enough to capture the over. Verdict: Under 6.5
