Aaron Rodgers will determine what happens in the NFC North.
Minnesota has the most talent in the division, but Rodgers can mask a lot of warts, as evidenced by his absence in 2017. If Rodgers can be back to his normal level, it should be a two-team race for first. If Rodgers can’t stay on the field or takes a slight step back, Minnesota should run away with the division.
Here’s my best bets for the NFC North in win totals. Last year, my bullish attitude on Minnesota led to a 2-2 record in win totals.
Chicago Bears, over/under 6.5
Oddsmakers are on my side for a change. Chicago will be better in 2018.
Mitchell Trubisky is another year older and the Bears have invested heavily in making him more comfortable with better options (hint, hint, huge sleeper potential in fantasy football with Allen Robinson).
Talent-wise, this team has a lot of favorable parts. The defense remains mostly intact from a unit that was ninth in yards per play allowed. Offensively, the Bears were a bottom-10 team, but with the additions to the receiving corps and the steady running back group, this team could easily improve by 10 spots.
I see more talent on the Bears roster than Green Bay and Detroit. That should translate to more wins. If Chicago can stay healthy on the offensive line, where the depth is poor, then the Bears can make it to at least seven wins. — Verdict: Over
Detroit Lions, over/under 7.5
I struggle with Detroit every year. The Lions are going to disappoint when it comes to the playoffs, but miraculously, the team seems to win enough games each year that makes me scratch my head.
They don’t have an overwhelming defense (ranked 24th a year ago) and the offense, while it was 10th in yards per play last year, doesn’t scare me from a defensive perspective.
So what am I going to do with oddsmakers expecting a diminished return in 2018? I’m going to search for the under.
There’s not much offensively for the Lions other than Matthew Stafford, and the defense didn’t make the giant leap necessary in the offseason. This team will win some games (because that’s what the Lions do), but it won’t be over seven games. — Verdict: Under
Green Bay Packers, over/under 10.5
The Aaron Rodgers effect.
That’s the only explanation for this bloated win total after the Packers won seven games a year ago. In terms of yards per play, Green Bay was one of the worst teams in the NFL last year, ranking 25th in offense and defense.
Rodgers will cover up a lot of the Packers blemishes, but this is a different division. The Bears are better and the Vikings have the most talent in the division.
Rodgers will win some games by himself, but I’m not banking on this team winning 11 games. The defense still has too many holes, and while Rodgers is the best quarterback in the NFL, he can only do so much.
Green Bay will win more than last year’s seven games, but it won’t be 11. — Verdict: Under
Minnesota Vikings, over/under 10.5
The Vikings deserve a win total in this range.
I’m actually surprised it’s not higher. Unlike other teams that have been blown out in conference championship games, the Vikings went out in free agency to better its roster. So I don’t expect a hangover from that dismal performance.
What I do expect is another defensive effort that ranks in the top-five (ranked second last year in yards per play allowed) and an offense that should be knocking on the door of being a top-10 unit (ranked 12th last year).
The Vikings have one of the most talented rosters in the NFL. There’s no reason to believe Minnesota won’t win at least 11 games. — Verdict: Over
