For the second straight year, NFL draft props are available, setting up even more interest in the annual tradition of caring about the NFL in the offseason.
William Hill US is offering the draft picks, so even if you don’t necessarily care about every single team in the NFL draft, you can have a little fun in wagering on a few prop bets. To give you an idea of what to expect, it’s a good idea to check out some mock drafts, like this one from Sports Betting Dime.
Those can provide you an edge when pulling the trigger on the NFL draft prop bets. Here’s my favorite bets heading into this month’s NFL draft.
Player to be drafted first: Saquon Barkley or Bradley Chubb
The big-time money is being placed on Barkley, likely thanks to the rumblings that Barkley could still be going first overall.
But I’ll have to side with Sports Betting Dime on this. The best value is on Chubb.
Just a month ago, Chubb was the consensus No. 1 overall pick. Now, he’s not, but he still offers enough value that he’s a safer pick than Barkley in this position. With the lower rookie wage scale, trades are more prevalent. That will be the case once again, especially with quarterbacks who are being touted as franchise-changing players.
With teams likely to move up to draft quarterbacks, that will reduce Barkley’s value in the NFL draft. Barkley will take a slight tumble, while Chubb fills an immediate, necessary need for a lower-tier team.
Quarterbacks drafted in round 1: Over/under 5
Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, Baker Mayfield and Josh Allen are definitely going to be first round picks. And most likely, they’re going in the top-12 of the NFL draft.
That doesn’t leave much room for the under in this situation.
This prop bet comes down to teams reaching for quarterbacks, which is a regular occurrence, especially since the NFL draft moved to the first round being a one-day event. That creates more urgency. With Lamar Jackson being almost an assured pick, it’s necessary to go with the over. However, getting to the over requires a major reach by a team, likely with Mason Rudolph in the late first round.
The under will not come through, so you have to take the over, with the hope that Rudolph’s name gets announced toward the end of the first round.
Running backs draft in round 1: Over/under 1.5
One running back will be drafted in the top-10 of the NFL draft.
Getting to that second running back will be an uphill climb. And that climb will be too steep in this year’s draft.
Barkley is the top-tier talent in this running back class. There are some quality running backs available in this draft, but they’ll be available in the second round. The depth of the running back class affects those looking to be drafted in the bottom of the first round.
Teams don’t need to reach for running backs because there’s not enough of a difference between many of those running backs. Without that urgency, book the under.
