Can Oklahoma finally be dethroned?
For the last three years, the Sooners have been the class of the Big 12, going a combined 25-2 inside the conference.
And once again, oddsmakers are predicting another conference title for the Sooners. Oklahoma is at +125 to win the Big 12, easily outdistancing Texas at +350 in second place.
But should you be that confident in Oklahoma to repeat for a fourth consecutive year?
Not so fast
I’ll be in the minority, but I’ve used this technique in several situations. When a longtime coach leaves a program, the following season is usually similar, if not better, than previous results.
Miami, Oregon, USC and many others have experienced that kind of steadiness. But as time progresses, the programs generally slip, which I anticipate will happen in Oklahoma.
So that means it shouldn’t be a forgone conclusion the Sooners will be the juggernaut that Bob Stoops created. However, the main issue in the Big 12 is the talent gap between the Sooners and the rest of the league.
There just doesn’t feel like a challenger is ready to take over the top spot. I like the Longhorns to improve mightily, but I’m not ready to believe they can vault to the top spot.
The easy money is on Oklahoma because of the lack of upper-echelon ability by the Big 12 teams. I like the depth in the league, but I wouldn’t vault a team above Oklahoma just yet.
Sleeper
But let’s say someone gave me some money to burn and I wanted to make it interesting. That happens all the time, right?
The team to eye as a dark horse in the league is TCU.
The Horned Frogs are cutting into that talent gap in the Big 12. The Horned Frogs may have the best defensive unit in the Big 12, which can rush the passer (a necessary tool to compete in the Big 12).
And offensively, TCU has skill position players with talent. The major issue with the Horned Frogs is their depth on the offensive line, but over time, that should correct itself this season.
TCU is going off at +800 to win the Big 12. It’s more than likely the Horned Frogs will return to the title game, so this is solid value.
