Quarterbacks rule the MVP landscape in Super Bowls. Since the year 2000, 12 quarterbacks have won MVP awards.

During the Super Bowl era, quarterbacks have won the MVP 29 times, compared to the second-best number by running backs with seven trophies.

So it’s not a shocker that Patrick Mahomes and Jimmy Garoppolo are the favorites to win the Super Bowl MVP award.

Mahomes is the favorite at +110, which pretty much offers zero value in a spot like this. Usually, with a bet like this, the favorite doesn’t have that terrible of odds. Garoppolo is more manageable at +290.

Jimmy Garoppolo, a 49ers quarterback, signs a football for a fan at the SAP Performance Facility, Santa Clara, Calif., Aug. 12, 2018. The 49ers organization invited military members from the local area to observe their training camp during a military appreciation day. (U.S. Air Force photo by Lan Kim)

Best Bet

Garoppolo has to be considered the best bet. The +290 number is solid in terms of getting some value. And with the 49ers being the better team (Mahomes may be the best player, but San Francisco is the better team), it wouldn’t be out of the realm of possibility for Garoppolo to start fast.

The Chiefs will expect the 49ers to set up the pass with the run. But I expect Garoppolo to play a major role in the early going, so he should get your attention as the best bet.

A possible dark horse

I’m going to avoid the Chiefs in this instance. If Kansas City wins, it’s extremely likely that Mahomes will win the MVP. Tyreek HIll offers some hope, but Mahomes does such a good job of spreading around the ball and making plays, that the expectation just isn’t there for anyone else.

San Francisco offers so many possibilities, so I’ll stay with the NFC champs.

For me, George Kittle offers some intrigue. He has the ability to have a monster game. He’s a big personality, so that helps as well as a person who can stand out from the rest of the pack. Kittle is the primary weapon for the 49ers and should hold a distinct advantage against Kansas City’s defense.

He’s going off at +1000, so that should offer some major intrigue.

A way-off-the-radar dark horse

The 49ers don’t care who gets the ball when running.

That’s why I’m not a fan of Raheem Mostert as a possible MVP candidate. San Francisco has used three different running backs this season. And with Tevin Coleman nursing an injury, a way-off-the-radar MVP pick could be Matt Breida.

He has odds at +6600, so he would bring ridiculous value. He also has shouldered the load several times this season as the lead back. If Mostert doesn’t have the hot hand, look for San Francisco to have a quick trigger on finding the better matchup.

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