Oddsmakers are showing love toward three No. 1 seeds as the NCAA tournament moves into the second weekend.
Kansas and North Carolina once again top the chart for the best odds to win the title, at +350 and +425, respectively. The Jayhawks and Tar Heels entered the Big Dance as the prohibitive favorites, with No. 2 seed Michigan State nipping at their heels.
With the Spartans out, Virginia has replaced them as the oddsmakers’ next choice at +575. Those odds are significantly better than before the tournament started. The Cavaliers entered March Madness at +1200, behind three teams and tied with Kentucky and Oklahoma.
The Sooners are still alive and own the best odds out of the West at +750. Oregon and Villanova are tied for the fifth-best odds at +1200.
Before the tournament started, I looked at teams that oddsmakers loved and hated. Oddsmakers were keen on the Big 10, putting the chances of Maryland, Indiana, Purdue and Iowa winning a title much higher than their respective seeds.
The Terrapins and Hoosiers are still alive, and while the Hoosiers have jumped from +3000 to +2000, the Terrapins have remained stagnant at +2800. The public loves the Jayhawks, along with college basketball experts.
I’m banking on Maryland beating Kansas, making it imperative to put a flier on Maryland. If the Terrapins beat Kansas, their odds to win the championship will skyrocket.
Oddsmakers also loved Gonzaga, putting it at +8000 to win the title before the tournament began, far ahead of what an 11th seed is ranked in the tournament. The Bulldogs are now at +2800, offering great value considering Gonzaga will square off against another double-digit seed in Syracuse.
The Orange have seen the biggest jump, going from +10000 to +3300 to win the title. Syracuse is tied with Notre Dame and Wisconsin as still having the longest odds to win the title.
Teams that oddsmakers hated compared to their seeding before the tournament are still alive. Iowa State, Texas A&M and Miami are all outperforming their perceived odds, bumping their chances up a bit. The Aggies are now +2000 to win the title, up from +3300, while the Hurricanes and Cyclones are +2800.
The Sooners likely give me the best value. Oklahoma should come out of its region and still have good enough odds that bettors can get a solid return on their investment.
The teams with the best long-shots are Gonzaga and Indiana. I believe the Bulldogs will win, putting them in an opportunity to continue to advance, and if the Hoosiers can get by North Carolina, they have an inside track at the championship game.
