The best weekend in the NFL is upon us.
While many consider Super Bowl weekend as the best time in sports, this weekend gives us plenty of action, with the perceived top-eight teams in the NFL. As mentioned last week, the games in Wild Card weekend could have been the worst in the history of the NFL.
And while some in the betting community believe this weekend may not be much better, I anticipate far closer matchups.
Here’s the NFL Divisional playoff best bets.
Last Week: 2-2 ATS
Overall: 51-51-3 ATS
Seattle at Atlanta (-5)
I’m not as sold on Seattle.
Oddsmakers love the Seahawks. Seattle began the week as only a field-goal underdog, but the betting public disagreed with the number.
And while I cringe to think about it, I’m all in with the betting public.
The Seahawks are atrocious on the road. Since beating New England in week 10, the Seahawks are 1-2 on the road, and the only win came against lame-duck San Francisco team by two points. The other games were bad losses to Tampa Bay and Green Bay.
I don’t trust Seattle’s offense. The offensive line is bad and I don’t see how Seattle’s offense is going to keep up with Atlanta’s high-flying unit. Atlanta owns the second-best offense in the NFL and isn’t horrible on the defensive side of the ball. The Falcons can rush the passer, which will be a tough assignment for Seattle’s offensive line.
I know I’m giving up a big amount of points, but this isn’t the same Seattle team that many believe will show up in the Divisional round. Atlanta is the better team and should cover. — Go Chalk with Atlanta
Houston (+16) at New England
Everyone is likely to take Houston, so I don’t feel great about this pick.
This is one of the largest spreads of all time in the playoffs, but I still doubt the Patriots. New England had one of the easiest schedules in 2016, so it’s not surprising the public is jumping on New England’s bandwagon. The Patriots are regularly the best team in the NFL and dominated Houston in the season’s first meeting.
But…this is the second matchup, which should help the Texans close the gap. And while I love New England on a regular basis, this is a team still winning without its best player (Ron Gronkowski), and they’re going against the best total defense in the NFL.
This game may not be in doubt, but it will be closer than many expect. The Texans have the best total defense for a reason. The Patriots won’t score a ton of points, so expect this to be a low-scoring game where Houston keeps it within two touchdowns. — Go Against The Chalk with Houston
Pittsburgh (+1) at Kansas City
People must be hammering the Andy Reid bye week strategy.
Reid is unstoppable after bye weeks, so that’s why the public has actually moved this from an even spread, to putting the Chiefs as a favorite. And while I was all over the Reid bye-week strategy earlier this season at Oakland, I can’t ignore the fact that I’m not sure how good of team that Kansas City is on a weekly basis.
Since the beginning of November, Kansas City has only played in two games decided by more than one touchdown. And several of those contests ended with a questionable way to win games. The Chiefs aren’t exactly a great statistical team, and actually own a bottom-10 rush defense.
That should spell doom against Pittsburgh, which can run the ball with any team in the NFL. And the Steelers also have a good enough defense that Kansas City’s low-ranked offense should have difficulty moving the chains. This is an interesting matchup, but the Steelers are the better team. — Go Against The Chalk with Pittsburgh
Green Bay at Dallas (-4)
Everyone is all over Green Bay.
So that means I’m going with the Cowboys. Dallas isn’t as bad as many perceive on the defensive side of the ball. The Cowboys actually own a better pass and rush defense than Green Bay. The Packers are a bottom-11 defense against the run and the pass, which won’t work well against a Dallas offense that ranks in the top-1o in total offense.
Aaron Rodgers has been as hot as any quarterback, but this game features far more than the quarterback position. That defense can’t stop anyone, and no matter how good it looked last week against a terrible New York Giants offense, I don’t trust it to stop a Dallas running game that ranks second-best in the NFL.
Don’t buy into the national media narrative of how great the Packers are suddenly. Rodgers is really good, but he can’t beat a good Dallas team by himself. — Go Chalk with Dallas
