The NFL draft is approaching, so that will once again lead to the overvaluing of certain prospects by oddsmakers.
We’ve seen this happen several times during the last few drafts. Early odds change over time, with players going up the draft board. It happened with Jared Goff. It happened with Baker Mayfield. And it’s likely to happen once again this year.
Oddsmakers are going with Nick Bosa as the favorite this year at -175. That shouldn’t be a surprise. He’s long been pegged as the top player in this draft, which is deep with defensive talent.
However, it’s the player listed as second on the list that should be surprising. Kyler Murray has the second-best odds at +300 to be the top pick in the 2019 NFL draft. That seems like an incredible reach, especially with Arizona owning the first pick.
Obviously, if Josh Rosen gets moved, then this is a distinct possibility. But I just don’t see that happening. And I don’t see many teams moving up to the No. 1 pick to draft a quarterback, since it’s highly unlikely there’s any chance the Cardinals draft a quarterback.
With very little risk of a quarterback going off the board at the No. 1 pick, teams will likely deal with other teams before the Cardinals. So that means quarterbacks should have a diminished value heading into this draft.
So that leaves Bosa, who does fill a need for the Cardinals on the defensive side of the ball. And while there’s a lot of talent on the defensive side of the ball, Bosa probably has the least risk, as long as he’s cleared by medical personnel at the combine. Josh Allen offers some intrigue, because he can also be an elite pass rusher, but as long as Bosa is healthy, he’ll be the likely pick.
Keep Allen in mind as a dark horse at +1400, but Bosa should garner the majority of your attention.
