We all have those teams we’re eyeing that will be better than the experts believe. And even though I have those teams that I believe will have down years, it’s more difficult to pull the trigger on the under for teams that won double-digit games just a year ago.
This is the NFL, though, and teams that were good a year ago will crash back to earth in some cases. I’ve already identified my favorite three teams to go over in NFL win totals in 2018, so here’s my favorite three teams to go under projected win totals.
Carolina Panthers, over/under 8.5
If you’re looking for my favorite under for 2018, this is it.
The Panthers are overrated and shouldn’t have won 11 games based on statistics in 2017. The offense ranked 19th in yards per play and the defense was even worse, giving up the 23rd-most yards per play per game.
Being an over .500 team with those numbers is not sustainable. Cam Newton is a quality quarterback, but he’s not someone you can trust on a consistent basis. This defense isn’t what it once was and the offensive line still needs too much work.
To believe Carolina is better than an 8-8 team is fool’s gold. This team went way over projected wins based on stats last season. The NFL has a way of balancing that out, so expect the Panthers to have a below-.500 year.
Baltimore Ravens, over/under 8.5
Baltimore relied too heavily on the defense last season for me to back it again in 2018.
The defense was good, ranking seventh in yards per play allowed in 2017. Despite that being a solid number, the defense wasn’t dominant, other than its ability to turn the opposition over. Baltimore led the NFL in takeaways per game at 2.1.
That’s a major red flag. Turnovers have a way of evening out over time, and while the Ravens are opportunistic, bettors can’t rely on turnovers every game for victories.
And with an offense that ranked 31st in the NFL in yards per play, I don’t see this situation getting better. Baltimore won games with smoke and mirrors thanks to turnovers in 2017. That won’t happen again with an offense incapable of consistently moving the ball.
Jacksonville Jaguars, over/under 9.5
It’s not that I hate defense. It’s just that I hate teams without an offensive identity capable of winning games on that side of the ball.
Jacksonville, despite making the AFC title game, relied too heavily on the run, run, pass strategy in 2017. The defense was elite, which should be the case once again in 2018, but I’m worried the takeaways won’t be at the level we were accustomed to seeing in 2017.
Jacksonville ranked second in takeaways in 2017.
The Jaguars need a better offense to maintain success. That won’t happen with Blake Bortles at the helm. This is a big number, so I’m fading the Jaguars reaching double-digit wins.
