There are some lofty expectations for college football teams in 2018.
Two teams have an over/under of 11 — in a 12-game regular season. Three more have an over/under at 10.5.
With that being said, I’m not daring enough to bet against Alabama and Clemson at the 11-win mark. Both teams have a monster talent edge in the majority of games and have a proven track record of winning games on a regular basis.
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What teams should be eyed for the under? Here’s my three favorite unders in 2018 college football win totals.
Michigan Wolverines, over/under 9
The Big 10 is very competitive at the moment and I don’t understand why Michigan’s win total is so high.
The Wolverines have gone over nine wins in just one of Jim Harbaugh’s three seasons as head coach. And while the skill positions are set at Michigan, I’m worried about the offensive line for the Wolverines.
And sure, the defense is good, but this isn’t the Big 10 from a few years ago. Teams need more than just a decent defense to win 10 games, especially with the daunting schedule awaiting Michigan.
Michigan opens the season at Notre Dame, and then squares off against Wisconsin, Michigan State and Penn State in three straight games from Oct. 13 to Nov. 3, with a road contest against the Spartans.
Oh, and then the Wolverines must travel to Ohio State to conclude the regular season.
There’s too many land mines to expect the over to hit for Michigan.
Miami Hurricanes, over/under 9.5
Miami was one of the hottest teams in the country last season before losing three straight games.
Now, I wouldn’t hold that against most teams heading into the next year, but the Hurricanes managed that hot start thanks to a gaudy positive turnover margin.
That wasn’t the case as the season concluded.
Miami ranked 11th in the nation in turnover-margin per game with a plus-0.9 edge. However, in the final three games, the Hurricanes were minus-1 per game.
That’s a red flag entering this season. Miami needed turnovers to win games last season. You can’t depend on that from season to season.
Miami has some young talent, but I’m not riding that to an automatic 10 wins. The Hurricanes show some regression this season and win nine or less games.
South Carolina, over/under 7.5
I’m not buying South Carolina or Will Muschamp.
That’s why I love the value I’m getting with this over/under, considering the Gamecocks can’t move the ball offensively. Teams that aren’t good on offense have a difficult time netting enough points to avoid upsets.
And what’s worse this year is that South Carolina is replacing plenty of key figures on the defensive side of the ball.
I just don’t trust this offense, so there’s no reason to believe this team can compete for eight wins with a schedule featuring Georgia, Missouri, Texas A&M, Florida and Clemson.
I’m looking for South Carolina to be one of the more disappointing teams in the country in 2018.
