It’s NFL draft week, so what better time than to take a peak at the early week 1 NFL lines?
I’ve already pointed out my three best favorites in week 1, so now I’ll find those under-the-radar teams capable of pulling off a week 1 underdog cover. Here’s my week 1 NFL picks featuring my favorite three underdogs.
Tampa Bay (+7) at New Orleans
I know I’m going to catch heat for this because I was all over the Buccaneers last season and that turned out…well, not so well.
If at first you don’t succeed, try, try again.
The Bucs defense is better than what they showed last year. Injuries crippled Tampa Bay early in the season and it took too long for them to put it together late in the season.
Despite ranking last in yards per play allowed last season, the Bucs were more middle-of-the-pack in the final month of the season.
The defense should be vast improved and the offense was a top-10 unit in yards per play last season. I don’t trust this new-look New Orleans running attack. The league has now had a year to prepare for this New Orleans offense, and the defense faltered toward the end of the season for the Saints.
The Bucs will challenge for an NFC South title and it all starts in week 1. — Go Against The Chalk with Tampa Bay
Dallas (+2) at Carolina
Carolina should have been better than what it was last year. The pieces were lined up and everything should have fallen into place.
But the Panthers were pretty ordinary during the majority of the season, despite a late run of wins against quality opponents.
Defensively, the Panthers ranked 23rd in yards per play allowed and were 18th in yards per play on offense. For a playoff team, those are some very less-than-stellar statistics.
Meanwhile, the Cowboys battled through injuries, but still turned in a top-10 defensive performance and a top-half offensive performance. The Cowboys will be healthier and have their full complement of players. Dallas will back to its form from two years ago, so I love this matchup. — Go Against The Chalk with Dallas
Buffalo (+3.5) at Baltimore
Where’s the love for the Bills?
Losing Tyrod Taylor may be the best thing for Buffalo, so why is this more than a field goal spread? Both are similar teams, with very little on offense and above-average defenses.
What I like about the Bills, though, is they didn’t have to have turnovers like Baltimore did in 2017. I appreciate Baltimore’s desire to aid my fantasy football team with all the turnovers and touchdowns, but that doesn’t translate from year-to-year.
The fact that Baltimore had to use defensive touchdowns last year to win games makes me hesitant to believe it will happen once again. The Bills were solid in turnover margin, too, but didn’t rely on that as much as the Ravens.
I trust the Bills more on offense, so I’ll easily go with the hook on this one. — Go Against The Chalk with Buffalo
