The first week is a scary endeavor when it comes to the Survivor Pool in the NFL.

Last year isn’t always an exact barometer on how well a team will do the following season. And week 1 always features a surprise or two, with a team doing better in that week than it does the rest of the season.

So it’s best to always trust a consistent winner, especially in week 1. That doesn’t always mean taking the team with the biggest spread. However, it does mean that it could handicap your Survivor Pool for the weeks to come, losing such a stalwart of a team.

In my mind, though, it’s better to be safe than sorry. Because if you lose, you’re done.

Tom Brady should lead the Patriots to a week 1 win. Flickr/Keith Allison/http://bit.ly/1SWdqHP

Week 1 competitors

Five games have a spread of five points or more in week 1, which is a pretty good barometer that the majority of those favorites are going to at least win straight up. New England, Pittsburgh, Atlanta, Dallas and Buffalo are expected to win by at least five points in week 1.

That’s an interesting group, especially since the Cowboys play a division rival in the New York Giants (at home), and the Bills weren’t a playoff team from a year ago.

Here’s the matchups:

Kansas City at New England (-7)

Pittsburgh (-8.5) at Cleveland

Atlanta (-6) at Chicago

NY Jets at Buffalo (-5.5)

NY Giants at Dallas (-5.5)

Rules of Thumb

My biggest rule is to not worry about the next week. Some strategize, hoping to keep certain teams for specific weeks.

That may work, too, but it’s too risky of a play right now. I don’t want to risk an advantage on the current week. That may be detrimental at times later in the season, but at least I’ll be playing later in the season.

I also hate to take road teams. It’s not that I refuse to take road teams, but in pretty much all levels of football, the home team has a distinct advantage. So in week 1, I’m fading the Steelers and Falcons. I’m actually a bit higher on the Bears than most, and while the Browns are terrible, it’s week 1 and their may be some fight in them to make a statement.

I’m also not keen on taking divisional rivals. The Jets and Bills don’t have the same rivalry as the Cowboys and Giants, but it’s still in the same division. And I don’t have all the answers with Buffalo either. There’s a new coach, so how long will it take for the Bills to get acclimated with the system?

And there’s no way I’m touching the Cowboys/Giants. Dallas is well-known to disappoint, so I wouldn’t be surprised if the Giants pull off an upset. That game is a top priority for a week 1 best bet in favor of New York.

And the winner is…

New England is a tough team to drop in week 1, but if I want to be safe, I’m taking Tom Brady and the Patriots. It’s the first game of the season, being played on Thursday at home. There’s zero chance New England loses that game.

That will complicate some matters later in the season, but I will be safe heading into week 2, where I already see a few teams jumping off the page.

Leave a comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

*