I just can’t stay away from Buffalo.

If I could, maybe I would have been undefeated in week 9. Instead, I backed the Bills in a drubbing, which shouldn’t have been hard to predict since Nathan Peterman was manning the quarterback position. I’m going to steer clear of the Bills this week, and will instead focus on three other underdogs in my SuperContest entry for the week 10 NFL picks.

Overall: 26-25-3 ATS

SuperContest: 21-20-4 ATS (23 points)

Underdogs: 13-12-2 ATS

Quarterback Blake Bortles should be a game manager again this year. Flickr/http://bit.ly/1JdVVl7/Keith Allison

Jacksonville Jaguars (+3) at Indianapolis Colts

I love the story of the Indianapolis Colts this season. Andrew Luck has come back and has gotten back on track.

The team has won some games, even with a defense not capable of stopping many people. And the running game has caught traction in recent weeks.

But I’m not sure Indianapolis should be a field-goal favorite against Jacksonville.

The Jaguars are still one of the best defensive teams in the NFL, giving up just 5 yards per play. That’s almost a yard better than Indianapolis at 5.7.

And the offense isn’t far off from Indianapolis on a season average. The Colts have looked good in recent weeks against the New York Jets, Buffalo Bills and Oakland Raiders. Those aren’t exactly world beaters.

The bye week came at precisely the right time for Jacksonville, which still holds a talent advantage against the Colts. The Jaguars are reeling, but they’ll bounce back after the bye. — Go Against The Chalk with Jacksonville

Dallas Cowboys (+6) at Philadelphia Eagles

I’m not going to completely overreact to the Dallas loss on Monday. The Cowboys had their chances, but Tennessee was the better team and much better coached unit in week 9.

That should motivate the coaching staff a little more against an Eagles team they’re familiar with.

Both teams are similar in yards per play, even with the national narrative so down on the Dallas offense. And the defense actually favors the Cowboys, with Dallas giving up 5.1 yards per play this season, compared to Philadelphia’s 5.7.

It’s been an even bigger discrepancy in recent weeks, with Dallas giving up 4.9 yards per play, compared to Philadelphia at 6.

Other than third-down conversations, Dallas pretty much dominated that game in week 9 on the defensive side of the ball. They just couldn’t get off the field. That should change this week.

Both teams are struggling with injuries, but I just wouldn’t want to give up this many points with the Eagles. Philadelphia may win, but I like Dallas to cover. — Go Against The Chalk with Dallas

New England Patriots at Tennessee Titans (+6.5)

This will probably be the last thing I want to do, but I’ll throw this one out there.

The Titans aren’t a bad team and showed some skill on Monday night against Dallas. However, I doubt New England will allow Tennessee to move the ball that well on third down in week 10.

Even without the strong third-down conversion rate, I still like my chances with Tennessee. The defense is showing some gains, and the running game should be able to neutralize some of what New England can do.

There are several ex-Patriots involved in this game, including Tennessee’s head coach. Don’t be shy with picking against New England. The defense isn’t good enough to be considered a lock in this game. — Go Against The Chalk with Tennessee

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