The underdogs have come through in a big way this season.
In week 11, though, I’m not as confident in the underdogs. Small spreads are the hot item for week 11 and I’m backing several favorites. However, that doesn’t mean I’m dismissing the underdogs entirely. Here’s the week 11 NFL picks featuring three underdogs to watch in this week’s SuperContest.
Overall: 30-26-4 ATS
SuperContest: 24-21-5 ATS (23 points)
Underdogs: 15-12-3 ATS
Dallas Cowboys (+3.5) at Atlanta Falcons
I think Dallas is good.
They’re not consistent. That’s for sure. But I think they’re good.
So even though this is back-to-back road games after a disheartening Monday night loss to Tennessee, I’m banking on the Cowboys.
Dallas can run the football, which should neutralize the Falcons offensive attack. Dallas also can play a little defense, unlike Atlanta. The Falcons are superior on the offensive side of the ball, but as seen in week 10 against Cleveland, they can’t play defense.
Atlanta is allowing 7 yards per play in the last three weeks, a far different number than Dallas, which is giving up just 5.6 yards per play.
Dallas looked like the better team in week 10 against Philadelphia and even though the Titans defeated Dallas two weeks ago, the Cowboys forced several third-and-longs and just couldn’t get off the field.
Atlanta’s defense isn’t good enough to be consistent. Go with the Cowboys and leave the Falcons defense at home. — Go Against The Chalk with Dallas
Green Bay Packers (+2.5) at Seattle Seahawks
This goes against a lot of what I try to follow in Thursday night games.
I generally like home teams on Thursday nights and that has been a fairly successful strategy to follow this year.
However, I’m not as sold on the Seahawks as everyone else and the Packers have enough offense to win on the road on a Thursday night.
Green Bay is actually averaging more yards per play on offense and giving up fewer yards per play on defense.
And that’s not even close in the last three games, with Seattle giving up 6.8 yards per play in the last three weeks, compared to Green Bay at 5.4.
Aaron Rodgers shouldn’t be dismissed, especially against a defense that isn’t as good as many are proclaiming. — Go Against The Chalk with Green Bay
Philadelphia Eagles (+8.5) at New Orleans Saints
Eventually, the New Orleans winning train will have to stall. Or at least another team will come close.
New Orleans has been the hottest team in the NFL over recent weeks and it’s come on both sides of the ball.
The Saints are able to run and pass the football, while the defense is starting to show some strides.
But with the good, I still believe the Eagles can keep this game close. There’s still enough on this roster, especially offensively, to hold their own with New Orleans.
This is a big number against a team with plenty of talent, so I’ll take Carson Wentz and company. — Go Against The Chalk with Philadelphia
