My SuperContest hot streak came crashing to a halt in week 11. A 1-4 ATS week was close to being better, but unfortunately I can’t find teams with kickers who can actually convert field goals.
So while I was climbing the charts heading into week 11, I’ve dropped significantly after a tough 1-4 week. So now, I have to get super hot.
Here’s my week 12 NFL picks featuring three favorites to watch in this week’s SuperContest.
Overall: 30-26-4 ATS
SuperContest: 25-25-5 ATS (23 points)
Favorites: 15-17-1 ATS
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Chargers (-12.5)
I’m not giving up on the Chargers just yet.
Last week was inevitably going to happen. Los Angeles hadn’t been at home for weeks, so the exhaustion was going to play a factor sooner, rather than later.
So that set up a tough matchup against a Denver team that can run the ball, which is something the Chargers have as a weakness. So enter the Cardinals, which can’t run the football.
This game is a plus matchup on multiple fronts. The Chargers average more than 2 yards more per play than the Cardinals, and allow a similar amount on the defensive side of the ball. The Chargers also are stingy against the pass, which is a problem for the Cardinals, which hasn’t been able to find rhythm throwing the football.
The Chargers are clearly the better team and this game won’t be within two touchdowns. — Go Chalk with Los Angeles Chargers
Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers (-3.5)
I don’t understand the obsession with Seattle. Maybe I’m missing something, but this team is not the one that should be valued this high, especially against a Carolina team that is much different at home than on the road.
The Panthers should hold more than a three-point advantage at home, with the way they play at home. The offense is a much different beast at home, along with a defense that should be able to slow down a Seattle passing attack that is missing several elements.
Seattle is averaging just 5.7 yards per pass attempt in the last three games, while Carolina is averaging 7.7. And where Carolina is strongest, in the running game, the Seahawks have disappeared on defense, giving up 6.2 yards per carry in the last three games.
The defense has remained consistent for Carolina all season, so I’m backing the Panthers to come back after a rough week 11 loss. — Go Chalk with Carolina
Chicago Bears (-3) at Detroit Lions
I don’t care that Mitchell Trubisky isn’t playing. Chase Daniel is a capable backup in an offense designed to help along mediocre talent at the quarterback position.
The Bears are a much better team than the Lions. Defensively, Chicago is a top-three unit in the NFL, and it shouldn’t have any difficulty stopping a Detroit offense still searching for an identity.
Offensively, the Bears are making strides, with a creative playbook and a passing game that shouldn’t take a step back. I have this game closer to a touchdown spread, even with a backup quarterback. — Go Chalk with Chicago
