My three favorites finally came through for me in week 11. Before week 11, my favorites had been on the right side of the scoreboard nine times in 10 weeks. It just took me a few weeks to find my footing.
Now it’s time to keep that momentum going. Here’s the week 12 NFL picks featuring the three best favorites to cover the spread.
Favorites: 12-20-1 ATS
Overall: 25-39-2 ATS
Carolina (-5) at New York Jets
This is a game that at the beginning of the season you would believe was a major mismatch. Some of the results earlier this season may have proven that belief incorrect, but now we’re closer to where we were at the beginning of the season.
The Jets are failing down the stretch, while the Panthers seem to be figuring out things offensively. The running game is averaging 5.7 yards per rush in the last three games, up from the season-average of 4.2 yards per play.
Defensively, the Panthers are still one of the better units in the league. Meanwhile, the Jets are fading on offense, seeing a reduction in yards per play in rushing and passing. The lack of talent on the offensive side of the ball is catching up to the Jets and will show in this matchup.
These two teams are on different trajectories. The Panthers are playing for the playoffs, while the Jets are just finishing out the season. — Go Chalk with Carolina
Buffalo at Kansas City (-10)
Here’s another team that we didn’t believe in during the preseason, but quickly fell in love with after some early results. And no, I’m not talking about the Chiefs.
The Bills don’t have a ton of talent, even on the defensive side of the ball. The Bills just haven’t been that great at stopping the pass all year. The only thing that kept them afloat was the ability to turn over opponents.
Much like what happens in the NFL, that eventually evens out, and that’s happening to Buffalo. And without turnovers, Buffalo’s defense is horrendous.
Kansas City is crashing back to earth too after an early hot start. But I trust the Chiefs more than the Bills in this spot. The talent level is far higher on the Chiefs, and Kansas City is still a pretty good team on the offensive side of the ball.
The defense has failed a bit, but the Chiefs get the Bills going on back-to-back road trips, heading from west to east. This should be a good bounce-back game after that complete meltdown in week 11 by Kansas City. — Go Chalk with Kansas City
Los Angeles Chargers (-2) at Dallas
In the biggest swing of spreads, the Chargers are now a two-point favorite after opening as four-point underdogs.
The move makes sense, not just in the public going overboard on recent results. But the Chargers are a better team.
Los Angeles has been consistent this season, averaging 5.5 yards per play, while the Cowboys are sinking in recent weeks, going from a season average of 5.4 yards per play to 4.5 yards per play in the last three games.
The same can be said on the defensive side of the ball, with Los Angeles giving up 5.4 yards per play, while Dallas is sliding, giving up 5.8 yards per play in the last three games.
Los Angeles actually has one of the better pass defense in the NFL, so it will be difficult once again for Dak Prescott to find much room to throw. The Chargers have been been good through the air, and this week shouldn’t be any different.
Los Angeles is hot and has the talent to be a dark horse playoff contender. Back the Chargers on Thanksgiving. — Go Chalk with Los Angeles
