If you’ve been betting New Orleans and Philadelphia as favorites this season, you’re likely a lot better off than I have been.
The Saints and Eagles will enter week 13 as favorites, and that’s been basically a guarantee cover in 2017, with Philadelphia going 7-1 ATS as a favorite, and New Orleans reaching 6-1 ATS. Keep an eye on those teams and more in the week 13 NFL picks featuring my three favorites that will cover the spread.
Favorites: 14-21-1 ATS
Overall: 27-43-2 ATS
Los Angeles Rams (-7) at Arizona
Speaking of another team that’s been good as a favorite, the Rams are 5-3 ATS as a favorite this season, winning by more than 15 points per game, the third-best mark in the NFL as a favorite.
The Rams got back on track in week 12 with a nice home win against the Saints, while the Cardinals took care of a Jacksonville team competing for the playoffs.
Unlike the Jaguars, though, the Rams will bring in a potent offense, averaging 5.9 yards per play this season, almost a full yard more than Arizona this season.
When the Cardinals play a top-tier offense, the defense isn’t even close to its past dominant self. Arizona has played six teams with offenses that rank in the top-half of the NFL in yards per play. The Cardinals are 1-5 in those games, and have allowed 28 or more points in five of those contests.
This defense isn’t the elite unit we’ve been accustomed to seeing in years past. The Rams will move the ball efficiently and the defense is good enough that it shouldn’t have trouble with the Cardinals. — Go Chalk with LA Rams
New England (-9) at Buffalo
The Bills looked a lot better than I anticipated in week 12, but this is still the same team that was run off the field in weeks 10 and 11. Last week’s win had more to do with Kansas City’s issues than the Bills suddenly figuring out all their deficiencies.
That’s why I like this line, especially with it staying in single digits. The Patriots are going to be able to move the ball on the Bills, and in recent weeks, New England has been shutting down the opposition.
The Patriots are averaging 6.1 yards per play on offense, compared to Buffalo’s 4.8 on offense. Defensively, New England’s once leaky defense is now giving up just 4.7 yards per play in the last three games, compared to Buffalo’s 5.7 yards per play in that time period.
The talent disparity is huge and Buffalo needs teams to turn over the football to be competitive in games. New England won’t do that, so give away a ton of points. — Go Chalk with New England
Carolina at New Orleans (-4.5)
Carolina has been really good lately, tapping in their old way of running their offense. They’re using Cam Newton’s legs more, opening up more opportunities in the rushing game.
That has helped the Panthers not only win four straight games, but also give them six yards per rush attempt in the last three games. That leads the NFL by a wide margin.
This week, though, they’ll have to be more than just the one-dimensional offense that they employ. New Orleans is showing strides on the defensive side of the ball and should be able to slow down the Panthers rushing game. That will force Carolina to throw, and the weapons on the outside just aren’t good enough to keep up with a New Orleans offense that is averaging 7.1 yards per play in the last three games.
We all loved New Orleans before last week’s road loss to the Rams. Get back on the bandwagon and this game could surprisingly be a one-sided affair. — Go Chalk with New Orleans
