I got back on the right track in week 15, generating an above .500 overall and the SuperContest.
With a 5-1 ATS mark overall, my overall record is now much more respectable at 45-40-4 ATS for the season. This week shows some solid lines for favorites once again, so here’s my week 16 NFL picks featuring three favorites to watch in this week’s SuperContest.
Overall: 45-40-4 ATS
SuperContest: 35-35-5 ATS (37.5 points)
Favorites: 23-21-1 ATS
Houston Texans at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5)
The Eagles are back? Maybe, at least in week 16.
Houston has been winning with smoke and mirrors in recent weeks. The offense is averaging just 5.1 yards per play in the last three weeks, down from its season average of 5.6. And the defense has been one of the worst in the NFL, giving up 6.2 yards per play in the last three weeks, the second-worst mark in the NFL.
Meanwhile, the Eagles have shown improvement on the offensive side of the ball, and actually the defensive side, too. Houston shouldn’t be trusted with back-to-back road games, heading into a hostile environment where the Eagles have plenty to play for to make the playoffs.
I’m not worried about the quarterback situation and in recent weeks, the Eagles have been better statistically than the Texans. Ignore the records and back Philadelphia. — Go Chalk with Philadelphia
Pittsburgh Steelers at New Orleans Saints (-6)
New Orleans has the most complete team in the NFL.
And after an emotional win in week 15 by Pittsburgh, I’m bullish on the Saints, who will return home after three weeks on the road. And during those three weeks, the Saints looked mortal on offense, but showed off a defense that looks capable of carrying them deep into the playoffs.
I’m not worried about the Saints offense, but I do have some concerns about Pittsburgh’s ability to do much on the road. Pittsburgh has been a different team on the road this year, compared to home. That should be a major red flag for anyone considering taking Pittsburgh.
New Orleans has the third-best defense in terms of yards per play allowed in the last three weeks. With an offense that will get back on track in week 16, that should be enough to cover the touchdown spread. — Go chalk with New Orleans
Jacksonville Jaguars at Miami Dolphins (-4)
When you’re looking at teams that quit on the 2018 season, there’s no team more obvious than Jacksonville.
After a deep playoff run in 2017, the Jaguars came crashing back to earth in 2018, with no offense and a defense that is more middle-of-the-pack than dominant like last year. The result is a team that lost to a Washington team barely able to field a complete roster and other embarrassing moments this season.
Miami looked terrible in week 15, but I’m going to ignore that effort. The Dolphins were forced to travel after a miraculous victory in week 14, so it should have been easy to see a letdown happen. That won’t be the case in this contest, with Miami far better than Jacksonville’s offense, and a defense that isn’t good, but capable enough to stop Jacksonville.
The Dolphins should be more favored than four points, so I’m banking on the Dolphins being the more motivated and talented team at this juncture of the season. — Go Chalk with Miami
