The first few weeks of the NFL season are difficult to navigate. The teams we pick as favorites may not actually be that good. It takes a few weeks to truly understand how good a team can be in 2018.
That’s why the overreaction that happens in week 2 of the NFL season is dangerous. Big spreads are fashionable, based only on the results from week 1. Week 1 is never a true barometer of what to expect this season, so don’t overreact to the results from week 1.
Like always, follow along on my journey through the Las Vegas SuperContest. I’ll showcase some of my picks on my blog, with the final results being highlighted on Twitter on Saturdays @AgainstTheChalk.
I couldn’t have entered the SuperContest without the help of Vegas Football Proxy. Tom Carroll is the best in the business at being a proxy.
Follow my journey through this blog and on Twitter to see my final SuperContest picks and how well I’m doing throughout the season.
Here’s my favorite three favorites to cover the spread in the week 2 NFL picks.
Overall: 3-2-1 ATS
SuperContest: 2-2-1 ATS (2.5 points)
Favorites: 1-2 ATS
Houston Texans (pick) at Tennessee Titans
This spread could go a little sideways if Marcus Mariota doesn’t suit up to play. If that’s the case, expect oddsmakers to make the Texans a favorite. If Mariota does play, the Titans could squeeze into a small favorite.
Either way, the Texans should be the one to back in this case.
The Titans were overwhelmed in week 1. I know I don’t take too much stock in week 1 results, but with the injuries piling up, an offensive and defensive approach that seemed woefully unprepared, and quarterback play that didn’t look any better than last year, I just can’t ignore the results.
The Texans should have the more dominant offense, which showed some promise in the rushing department. And the Texans have a good enough front four to harass Mariota or whoever steps behind the center for the Titans.
The Titans had a rough opener in many ways. I’m fading Tennessee in this week 2 matchup. — Go with the win for Houston
Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I jotted down some notes while watching Philadelphia’s week 1 win against Atlanta. The most important note of all came in about the third quarter when I realized that this team would win some games by wide margins this season.
Nick Foles can’t play much worse than he did in week 1. He’s done that before, but this team is so good around him that it doesn’t really matter. The offensive line wore down the Falcons, much like it did last season, and the defensive front is nasty. Philadelphia wasn’t blitzing at the end of the game against Atlanta because it didn’t have to.
That’s frightening for teams like Tampa Bay, which can’t neutralize the pass rush.
Tampa Bay’s offense is good, but not as good as we saw in week 1. And without much of a running game, they can’t keep the Eagles pass rush at bay. Philadelphia’s offense will find a groove against Tampa Bay and this one won’t be close. — Go Chalk with Philadelphia
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-3)
The Dallas bandwagon doesn’t look as good as it did before the season began.
However, I’m not going to go overboard with the week 1 results for the Cowboys. Carolina has a legitimate home-field advantage. For some reason, the Panthers are just better at home.
That showed last week. But what I did like in week 1 was Dallas’ defensive ability against the pass. That will help in week 2 against a Giants team that struggled once again in week 1 throwing the football.
Dallas still has a solid offensive line and that will help against a Giants team that hasn’t been great against the run in recent years.
The Cowboys are better than what we saw in week 1. They’ll show that this week against a Giants team still looking for an offensive identity. — Go Chalk with Dallas
