Favorites were a bad bet in week 3, highlighting a common theme that happens in the NFL during the early part of the season.
We overvalue teams so much that spreads become too big. Was Cleveland really a road favorite? How about New England as a two-touchdown favorite over a playoff team? We forgot this was the NFL and that every game has question marks.
Now that we realize that the NFL still has underdogs that cover, the spreads are more in line with what they should be. Here’s the three best week 4 NFL favorites that will cover the spread.
Favorites: 4-5 ATS
Overall: 9-8-1 ATS
Jacksonville (-3.5) at New York Jets
Remember those times we believed the Jets wouldn’t win a game? Then week 3 happened, showing us that it takes likely more work to win zero games than it does to be undefeated.
The Jets aren’t bad enough to lose every game, but they’re not good enough to compete in consecutive weeks against a team that I believe will compete for the playoffs. Jacksonville has an elite defense, shutting down offenses to the tune of allowing less than 260 yards per game.
The Jaguars allow less than 130 yards passing, so don’t expect the Jets to have a similar day moving the chains as they did in week 3 against a Dolphins defense not even close to what New York will see in week 4. Offensively, the Jaguars should be able to run the football against the Jets.
Really, this game comes down to the value we’re getting with only giving up 3.5 points. The Jaguars are good enough to compete for the playoffs, while the Jets won’t win more than three games this season. Last week’s game came down to Miami having to open its season with road games in Los Angeles and New York. This won’t be the case this week. New York is still really bad. Bank on that in week 4. — Go Chalk with Jacksonville
Miami vs. New Orleans (-3)
What did Miami do to make the schedule makers so upset with them?
The Dolphins missed week 1, and then proceeded to travel to Los Angeles, New York and now to London in week 4. That’s a horrible start to the season.
It’s not only that bad road in the early going, I’m also concerned with this defense. Miami wasn’t good on the defensive side of the ball last year and it doesn’t seem to have gotten any better. The Dolphins are in the bottom-10 in total yards allowed and they once again can’t stop the pass. The Dolphins rank in the bottom-five in pass defense and they’ve totaled three total sacks in two games.
That’s not going to get it done against a New Orleans offense that appears to be similar to the one we’ve seen in years past.
This game will come down to the Dolphins getting off the field on defense. Miami is so bad in the secondary department, it’s allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 79 percent of passes. That’s a bad stat against Drew Brees.
The Dolphins sleepwalk through this one and the Saints even their record to 2-2. — Go Chalk with New Orleans
Carolina at New England (-9)
Carolina’s offense is just what the doctor ordered for New England’s defense.
Going into a week 3 tilt against New Orleans, most experts believed that was the time Cam Newton and this offense would start clicking. The Saints hadn’t stopped anybody previous to that, so it was assumed that the Panthers would roll over the Saints.
That didn’t happen, thanks to Newton’s inability to complete consistent passes. That’s been an ongoing problem, and now since the Panthers won’t use Newton’s legs, he resembles a below-average quarterback. I know New England hasn’t done anything on defense this year, but Newton isn’t the answer at the moment.
I need to see something more out of Carolina to back them going forward. This defense was exposed last week and it won’t get any better this week against a New England team that has been a juggernaut in the last two weeks on the offensive side of the ball. I’ve been cold with the Patriots in the last two weeks, but I’m confident in Carolina laying an egg, and New England getting better. — Go Chalk with New England
