With three weeks completed, it’s time for the spreads to come back down to earth.

Big spreads, of more than a touchdown, have defined the first three weeks of the season. This week offers a bit of a reprieve from the big spreads, with eight games featuring spreads of four points or less. Favorites should offer a better outlook, so here’s three games I’m eyeing in the week 4 NFL picks.

As always, follow my SuperContest journey through this blog and on Twitter @AgainstTheChalk for my final choices each week

If you’re interested in entering the Westgate SuperContest next season, make sure to visit Vegas Football Proxy on how to enter. They’re the best in the business and can make your weekly picks.

Dak Prescott will be on the rise in the 2018 NFL season. Flickr/Keith Allison

Overall: 8-9-1 ATS

SuperContest: 8-6-1 ATS (8.5 points)

Favorites: 3-6 ATS

Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys (-3)

This matchup doesn’t work for the Lions.

Dallas isn’t as bad as what many in the media are proclaiming. The offense isn’t going to air it out, but the offense can wear down opposing defenses.

And that compliments a defensive unit that has harassed offenses this season, to the tune of allowing just 4.3 yards per play.

Detroit is going to try to pass often against a pass rush that is one of the best in the NFL, and the Cowboys are allowing just 5.7 yards per pass attempt.

Meanwhile, the Lions own the worst rush defense in the NFL, giving up 5.4 yards per rush attempt. That should open up some holes for a Dallas team averaging an NFL-best 6 yards per carry.

Dallas will bounce back from a week 3 loss to Seattle with a grind-it-out victory in week 4. — Go Chalk with Dallas Cowboys

Cleveland Browns at Oakland Raiders (-2.5)

The Raiders aren’t as bad as what their record indicates.

Oakland is 0-3, but the losses have been close. In week 1, Oakland led at halftime against the best team in the NFL, the Los Angeles Rams. In weeks 2 and 3, Oakland led for most of the games, only to see the leads disappear in the second half.

Oakland is close, and that means eventually, the wins will start coming.

And there’s no reason to believe that won’t start happening in week 4 against a Browns team that is deficient on the offensive side of the ball. Regardless of who is at the quarterback position, I don’t trust Cleveland consistently moving the ball down the field.

The Browns average just 4.5 yards per play. That’s a major disadvantage to the Raiders, which average 6.1 yards per play. Defensively, the Browns have shown great strides, but I’m still buying this Raiders offense catching fire.

Quietly, Derek Carr has been efficient in the last two weeks. He’ll keep that going in this game and the Raiders will finally close the door on a win in week 4. — Go Chalk with Oakland Raiders

Seattle Seahawks (-3) at Arizona Cardinals

Arizona is terrible.

The defense that once was the catalyst of this team is non-existent. The Cardinals are giving up 5.6 yards per play, which is a bottom-half number in the NFL.

That hinders Arizona’s ability to win games, especially since the Cardinals average 4 yards per play on offense, the second-worst mark in the NFL.

Even with Josh Rosen at quarterback, I’m still not buying this offense as a unit that can compete with Seattle. The Seahawks still have Russell Wilson and finally showed progress with its running game in week 3.

The running game has been showing glimpses of breaking through and I anticipate that will work against an Arizona defense not able to be the juggernaut it once was. — Go Chalk with Seattle Seahawks

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