Week 3 was a roller-coaster of emotions. On one hand, my underdogs all won straight up. On the other hand, my favorites bombed.
I still managed a 3-3 ATS week, so I won’t complain too much.
Hopefully the underdogs keep coming, with a little help from the favorites. Here’s the three best week 4 NFL underdogs that will cover the spread.
Underdogs: 5-3-1 ATS
Overall: 9-8-1 ATS
Cincinnati at Cleveland (+3.5)
Remember when we all believed Cincinnati was a dumpster fire and the Browns were a road favorite?
What a difference a week can make.
The Browns aren’t ready to be a road favorite and the Bengals were in major desperation mode, something that is a major motivator in NFL. Even in desperation, the Bengals still lost. And now they’re in the back-end of a back-to-back road tilt against a perennial bottom-feeder.
So naturally, I’m going with the Browns to win straight up.
Cleveland is going to win up front in this content. Cincinnati’s offensive line has major issues and the Browns actually aren’t bad on the offensive and defensive lines. Turnovers have killed the Browns this season, with nine for the season.
I can live with that, because turnovers can even out over a season. The Browns are showing more grit on defense, averaging in the middle of the pack in yards allowed, and being a much better rush defense.
Cleveland is allowing 3.1 yards per carry, the fourth-best mark in the NFL. That’s a far cry from where this franchise has been in recent years.
I’m getting great value in this game because the betting public still believes the Bengals are the team we remember from two years ago. They’re not. Week 3 won’t carry over to week 4, meaning the Browns get their first win of the season. — Go Against The Chalk with Cleveland
Philadelphia (+1) at Los Angeles Chargers
I fell in that trap last week with the Chargers. I was all over Kansas City, until the final moments when I decided to like Los Angeles. I believed in a better offensive line and defense.
But I was wrong.
I’m going with my original perception on Los Angeles. I don’t get the hype. This team can’t establish a consistent running game and they don’t make stops when necessary.
Philadelphia has a good enough pass rush to thwart anything that Philip Rivers will attempt to do and the Eagles actually showed some life in the running game in week 3.
I get a much better team personnel-wise with Philadelphia. The only reason this game has the Eagles as an underdog is the cross-country trip the Eagles have to take. Los Angeles has no home-field advantage since their fans don’t show up, and they’ve lost their last six games at home.
I believe in Philadelphia’s emerging talent enough that it can win straight up. — Go Against The Chalk with Philadelphia
San Francisco (+7) at Arizona
Sometimes I get confused on betting lines. Why is Arizona a touchdown favorite?
The Cardinals are lucky to even have a win this season and the 49ers have played tough in the past two weeks against superior talent. That once vaunted Arizona defense is allowing more than 300 yards per game. They’re still good, but not at the level they once were.
Part of that rests on the shoulders of an offense that is stagnant. They look old and can’t get a running game going. That puts too much pressure on Carson Palmer, who can’t carry a team like he once could.
Despite what we saw in week 3, the 49ers are better on defense than the past year, and the offense is starting to focus more on a running game.
I just can’t believe the value I’m getting with this game. To me, the personnel on these teams are similar enough to believe San Francisco has a real shot at winning straight up. — Go Against The Chalk with San Francisco
