For how bad week 7 was for the Chalk, the favorites actually weren’t that bad. And had the ball bounced just a few different ways, it may have been a completely different story.
The ball hasn’t bounced my way so far this year. But we’re less than halfway through the season, so there’s still plenty of time. Here’s the week 8 NFL picks featuring the best three favorites that will cover the spread.
Favorites: 6-14-1 ATS
Overall: 16-24-2 ATS
Indianapolis Colts at Cincinnati Bengals (-10.5)
At the beginning of the season, Cincinnati couldn’t score 10 points, let alone win a game by more than that number.
But this is where we are in week 8. Indianapolis is terrible on both sides of the ball. The defense is second-worst in total yards allowed and the offense isn’t much better, ranking fifth from the bottom. The personnel is really bad, highlighted by one of the worst offensive lines and defensive backfields in the NFL.
That isn’t a great sign against a Cincinnati defense that ranks fifth in total yards allowed.
We could break this down in multiple ways, but the Bengals just have far more talent than the Colts. Cincinnati has gotten better offensively and shouldn’t have trouble moving the chains in this one. I hate to give up this many points, but this game feels like a blowout. — Go Chalk with Cincinnati
Oakland Raiders at Buffalo Bills (-3)
The Raiders can’t establish a running game. And the major issue against Buffalo is that they won’t even try.
Oakland averages only 21 carries per game, the third-lowest number in the NFL. Without at least attempting to run the ball, the Raiders will have to square off against one of the best pass defenses in the league as a one-dimensional unit.
The Bills will give up some yards, but they generally don’t give up touchdowns. Quarterbacks are being limited to a QBR of 75 against them, too, which ranks in the top-five in the NFL.
This matchup works well in the Bills favor. I know we’re all jumping on the Raiders bandwagon again after week 7’s improbable victory against Kansas City. In reality, we shouldn’t. The team still couldn’t do anything on defense, and if it wasn’t for a terrible defensive effort through the air by Kansas City, the Raiders would be staring at a major hole.
I don’t trust the Raiders in the early window traveling east with a unit not as good as the one we saw last year. — Go Chalk with Buffalo
Carolina Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2)
Eventually Tampa Bay is going to be the team we believed before the season began. And finally, even with a loss in week 7, I believe we’re starting to see that team.
The defense had a bit of a hiccup this week with Noah Spence going on injured reserve, but overall it’s getting healthier, meaning we might avoid seeing one of the worst defenses in the NFL during week 8. It took time last year for the defense to find its footing.
This year has that same kind of feel.
And if the defense can finally get going, the offense looks like a unit prepared to take the next step. Jameis Winston sliced through a good Buffalo defense in week 7, giving them hope against a Carolina team coming off a bad road loss in week 7. This game should be close, but at this juncture of the season, back-to-back road games start to take a toll. The Panthers are on the road for a second straight game and I trust Tampa Bay more in this spot than an underwhelming Carolina team. — Go Chalk with Tampa Bay
