Almost halfway through the NFL season and I’m ready for 2018.
This season has been ridiculous, and my handicapping is suffering because of it. Week 7 was another trip to the dumpster, even for my underdogs, which haven’t been too bad this season.
There’s always an opportunity to get hot, and week 8 feels like the start of better fortune. Here’s the week 8 NFL picks featuring the three best underdogs that will cover the spread.
Underdogs: 10-10-1 ATS
Overall: 16-24-1 ATS
San Francisco 49ers (+13) at Philadelphia Eagles
I may be the only person who likes this game this week, but follow me on this one.
I’ve been pretty on point with the 49ers this season, going 5-2 ATS in their games so far. We’re all going to rush to judgment based on the week 7 results by both teams, but that would be a foolish ploy.
The 49ers entered week 7 coming off a three-game road trip that culminated in a close loss in Washington, D.C. The Cowboys were entering that game rested after a bye.
The Eagles entered week 7 against a depleted Washington secondary, and despite the final score, looked sluggish at times and was unable to look good against the blitz.
Now, I get Philadelphia coming off a nice Monday night win to face the winless 49ers. I also have an Eagles team trying to rework its offensive line after multiple injuries on Monday night.
All signs are pointing in the direction of a letdown for the Eagles. And if I’m going to give up that many points, shouldn’t I at least have a better pass defense?
The Eagles allow the fourth-most yards per game through the air. So while the 49ers aren’t tremendous on either side of the ball, they’ve shown to play decent defense at times, and also be able to move the ball effectively.
Personnel-wise, San Francisco is better than the bottom-ranked teams in the NFL. It’s a matter of time before they break out for a win. I’m not saying San Francisco is going to win straight up, but this has all the makings of a Philadelphia letdown, allowing the score to stay close. — Go Against The Chalk with San Francisco
Atlanta Falcons at New York Jets (+4.5)
Are we still holding on to the notion that Atlanta is still the same team from last year, and not the version we had become accustomed to in previous years?
From 2013 to 2015, Atlanta was 18-30. In 2016, they were 11-5. Why is everyone losing their brain about the Falcons returning to their prior form? This happens all the time in the NFL and it shouldn’t be a surprise it’s happening again.
Luckily for people who aren’t shocked by the regression, we can grab the Jets and take 4.5 points for week 8.
I’m beginning to change my tune on the Jets. Defensively, they’re not bad and Todd Bowles should be considered one of the better head coaches in the NFL. Offensively, they should be a mess, but they’re hanging in there.
New York is going to move the ball against this Atlanta defense. And defensively, the Jets are going to be able to limit big plays. That is a problem for Atlanta.
As the season progresses, back-to-back road games start to take their toll. The Falcons are returning to the road after Sunday night’s debacle. — Go Against The Chalk with New York Jets
Chicago Bears (+9) at New Orleans Saints
Should we trust the Saints?
They’ve looked pretty good in recent weeks. The offense is humming and the defense is playing better in spurts. But who have the Saints beaten?
I’ll give them the Carolina game in week 3. But since then, the Saints have defeated a Miami team on the third leg of a road trip halfway around the world, won at home against a Detroit team with a hobbled quarterback and earned a road victory against a team starting a backup quarterback.
So while they’ve looked good, I’m not sure if it’s been against the caliber of opponent we saw them face in weeks 1 and 2. And maybe the Bears don’t warrant much respect either, but that defense is going to test the Saints.
Chicago is harassing quarterback, notching the sixth-most sacks in the NFL. They also don’t allow big plays. Teams only have 18 plays of 20 yards or more against the Bears, the seventh-best mark in the NFL.
The Bears offense scares me to death, but the defense should keep this within one score late. As long as the Bears can stay away from insurance scores late from Drew Brees, you should be comfortable with the nine points. — Go Against The Chalk with Chicago
