I just can’t catch a break. I went back and forth in week 8 about taking Chicago in the Westgate SuperContest, and just couldn’t pull the trigger.
So instead of sitting back and enjoying a 4-1 ATS week, I labored through a 3-2 ATS week, which isn’t going to get me back in the running to place. I need a lot of wins in a hurry, so here’s my week 9 NFL picks featuring three underdogs to watch in this week’s SuperContest.
Overall: 21-24-3 ATS
SuperContest: 17-19-4 ATS (19 points)
Underdogs: 11-11-2 ATS
Pittsburgh Steelers (+3) at Baltimore Ravens
I don’t get why the Steelers are underdogs. Can anyone explain that to me?
Pittsburgh is showing improvement, both on the offensive and defensive sides of the ball. Baltimore, meanwhile, is fading.
And Pittsburgh is incredibly healthy. There’s very few players that actually matter who are even in question to not play on Sunday. Baltimore, on the other hand, has 11 players listed on the injury report.
The Ravens should not have gotten the attention they got earlier this season, based on its defense. The defense has long needed turnovers to be successful. When that isn’t happening, then there’s issues.
The Ravens are giving up 4.8 yards per play in the last three games. The Steelers are giving up 4.5. Pittsburgh also is tallying 6.6 yards per play on offense, while the Ravens are mustering just 5.2.
The Steelers haven’t forgotten how the Ravens beat them earlier this season and what Joe Flacco said in his postgame comments. Forget about home-field advantage and back the Steelers. — Go Against The Chalk with Pittsburgh
Chicago Bears at Buffalo Bills (+10)
Nathan Peterman is likely to start. That should make me run for the hills.
But, with a record under .500 in the SuperContest, things like backing possibly the worst quarterback in the history of the NFL is right up my alley.
The Bills defense actually isn’t that bad. Buffalo allows just 5.2 yards per play and has played pretty well in several instances this season, especially at home. Buffalo owns a real home-field advantage.
Chicago is battling some injury issues, while Buffalo is pretty healthy, other than the quarterback position.
This comes down to do you really believe Mitchell Trubisky should be a 10-point favorite on the road? I have my doubts, especially with the struggles Chicago has endured on the road this year.
This is a touchy one, but I’m going all in for the Bills in the SuperContest. — Go Against The Chalk with Buffalo
Los Angeles Chargers (+2) at Seattle Seahawks
People are falling in love with Seattle.
That’s not a smart move.
Seattle isn’t as good as you think. The Seahawks have had good matchups in recent weeks, but there’s some issues with the defense, along with an offense that is still too inconsistent to trust.
And, as you’ll notice in my blog, injuries should play a role in this. The Chargers are getting healthier, while Seattle is battling the injury bug.
The Seahawks just don’t have near the firepower the Chargers will employ on the offensive side of the ball. Defensively, Los Angeles is much better than you think.
It’s tough to pick against Seattle at home, but I think there’s just too much of a discrepancy in these two teams’ talent levels. — Go Against The Chalk with Los Angeles
