It’s time to start another baseball season. And what better way to celebrate upcoming Opening Day than to guess which team will go over or under their projected win totals.
Last year, my brother coaxed me into backing the Arizona Diamondbacks in the over. That ship sailed by the end of April.
Entering this season, it should be no surprise that the Chicago Cubs own the highest win total, at 96.5, while my hot team from last year, Cleveland, is actually predicted to have a higher amount of wins than Boston, at 93.5. The Red Sox are second in the American League with 91.5.
I’m fading the Indians this year at 93.5. The AL Central still has Kansas City, which is dangerous, and a Detroit team that is undervalued. Minnesota and the Chicago White Sox are dumpster fires, but if that young talent improves, they may be tough beats by August and September.
As far as the Cubs and Red Sox go, I’m staying away from them.
Here’s three other teams that I feel confident will either go over or under their win totals.
Colorado Rockies, over 80.5
Take it to the bank.
Colorado will have a winning record this season. I know that’s difficult for some to believe based on the strength of the NL West, but the Rockies, on paper, look like a team that can compete.
The offense will be there and they’ve finally added some pitching depth to compete on a nightly basis. Arizona doesn’t have the depth to get through a 162-game schedule, and it’s not out of the realm of possibility for Los Angeles to take a step back. Oh, and did I mention San Diego is in the running for worst team in Major League Baseball?
San Francisco will be there, but Colorado should contend for a Wild Card spot. The Rockies don’t have the experience like the Dodgers or Giants, but in recent years, that has been a moot point in Major League Baseball.
The Rockies should be considered a dark-horse contender to win the NL West, so don’t worry about them getting over 80 wins.
Pittsburgh Pirates, under 85.5
It’s been a nice ride for Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh went for more than 87 wins in a three-year period from 2013 to 2015.
But last year, with the Cubs owning the National League, the Pirates took a step back. Oddsmakers are predicting that to change this season, but I’m more inclined to believe the slide from the top spot in the NL Central will continue.
The Cubs and the Cardinals aren’t going away. Chicago is in another league with their roster, which will put pressure on Pittsburgh in 2017, and St. Louis is one of the best-run franchises in major sports.
That leaves Pittsburgh on the outside looking in.
The lineup doesn’t do much for me, and how long should we expect Andrew McCutchen to carry the lion’s share of the work? The starting pitching isn’t as dominant as it once was, so I’m questioning why this number is so high.
I’m fading the Pirates and believe it’s more likely for them to be under 80 wins than over 85.
Kansas City Royals, over 81.5
Many of the pieces are still there from Kansas City’s run to a World Series title. And many of those players are entering their final year in their contracts, meaning this is likely the final piece of that magical puzzle for the Royals.
The offense should be improved this season with Alex Gordon likely to be better than his terrible 2016. Most of the other offensive weapons are still in place, so that should be better.
The Royals were exposed last year in pitching. The bullpen isn’t like it was in the last few years, but it’s still formidable enough. This team will need better starting pitching to make a playoff push.
It’s still within reach for the Royals and this number is too low in a division with the White Sox and Twins occupying two spots. Take the over.
