For many, it’s an open and shut case on what to do with the Chicago Cubs this year in terms of win totals.
The betting public is backing the Cubs, which sees the projected 89 wins as easy money. Last season, the Cubs won 97 games, so it shouldn’t take much thought to place a wager on the over.
Don’t be so sure.
The Cubs should be right back in the mix for the National League playoffs. That doesn’t mean, though, that they’ll win 90 games. Five teams won 90 or more games last season for the NL. In the more competitive American League, five teams have 90 or more wins combined in the previous two seasons.
Expect the top-heavy NL to take a step back to allow the bottom-feeders an opportunity to win a few games. That will mean while Chicago still may be atop the NL Central, it won’t win near as many games.
What makes it more difficult on the Cubs is the NL Central should have three of the best teams in the league. Pittsburgh and St. Louis own over/unders of 87 and 87.5, respectively. That’s not completely out of line from previous years, since the Pirates have won 88 or more games in three consecutive seasons, while the Cardinals are…well the Cardinals.
St. Louis was the only team in Major League Baseball to win 100 games last season.
Those three teams carry the division, while Milwaukee and Cincinnati took nose dives last season. Don’t expect the Reds and Brewers to be as bad this year, though.
Milwaukee and Cincinnati are projected to win more games, putting more pressure on the top part of the division. Add in better projections for Arizona, which has an offense that should be one of the best in the National League to go along with better pitching, and Miami, which if it can stay healthy should compete in a loaded NL East, and there should be more competition for the Cubs.
That’s why oddsmakers have tempered expectations, putting Chicago at eight less wins than last season. It’s hard to disagree with the public on the over, especially when the Cubs return all their key pieces from last year to go along with new outfielder Jason Heyward.
But I see the National League morphing a little more into the American League. The Cubs should be one of the best teams in the National League, but they won’t have the same success as last season thanks to a more well-balanced league.
