Last week we used motivation as our key to success in our NFL ATS Lockness Monsters and it worked. We went 4-1 against the spread, so we’re looking for that motivation this week.

Here’s our five best bets for the weekend in the NFL.

Last week: 4-1 ATS

Season: 40-33-2 ATS

Dallas (+6.5) at Buffalo

We’re anticipating the Cowboys to act like professionals and keep this close. We’re also predicting the Bills to play down to their competition, especially since lately we’ve been disappointed in Buffalo’s performances.

We’ve seen Buffalo in the last two weeks play bad football after beating the Houston Texans. There was a chance at the playoffs, but now, the players are only playing for their jobs.

That’s not enough on a squad with Rex Ryan as their coach. He’s an emotional coach and the team won’t respond this week at home against the Cowboys, which have been road warriors. They’ve also been playing as non-playoff entrants for quite awhile (don’t be fooled with their slim chances lately). We like the Cowboys professionalism and their ability to keep this close in Buffalo. –– Go against the chalk with Dallas

Indianapolis at Miami (-3)

Both defenses are horrendous, so this should feature plenty of points.

The Dolphins can’t stop the run, but the Colts can’t run or pass the ball with consistency. The Dolphins, meanwhile, refuse to run the football, so expect plenty of passing, which should bode well for the Dolphins.

We just can’t get behind Matt Hasselbeck as the quarterback for the Colts. His age is showing and the Dolphins should be motivated for jobs. They had a tough time coming back from a short week against the Chargers last week, but we’re not concerned with that this week. We’re more concerned with the Colts inability to stop anybody, so we’re going with the Dolphins. –– Go chalk with Miami

New England (-3.5) at New York Jets

We know many people are predicting the Jets this week to upend the Patriots. That’s great.

The only problem is that New England is getting healthier and the Jets aren’t necessarily getting any better. This is still the same Jets team that struggled against the Cowboys last week. This is the still the same Jets team that fell behind the New York Giants before pulling off an improbably comeback.

The Patriots have shown in the last two weeks they’re the class of the AFC when healthy. And that’s what’s happening for New England.

With the increased health, the Patriots will expose the Jets once again, and should cover. — Go chalk with New England

Carolina at Atlanta (+6.5)

Boy, we picked the Falcons last time against the Panthers and fell flat on our face.

So, we’ve decided to go with the Falcons again, and are attempting to predict the Panthers to at least have an off game.

Let’s face it…the Falcons are due. Atlanta looked good on the road last week and should come home with some motivation from last week. And let’s face it. The Panthers are going to face everyone’s best shot, and the Falcons have a good shot to give.

They have one of the best receivers in the NFL and one of the best running backs. The Panthers are playing back-t0-back road games, and they don’t really need this game to clinch home-field advantage. The Falcons need this game for the playoffs and we’re getting almost a touchdown. We like the Falcons with the edge. — Go against the chalk with Atlanta

Cleveland (+11.5) at Kansas City

Maybe we like Johnny Manziel. Or maybe we like teams in back-to-back road games. Whatever the reason, we like the Browns in this scenario.

It actually comes down to the Chiefs being a more than 10-point favorite over any team in the NFL. In what world are we living in that the Chiefs can be such a big favorite. They’ve been hot, but since oddsmakers have adjusted for the Chiefs, they haven’t done as well against the spread.

That will continue this week against the Browns, which should play well despite their lack of an opportunity to do anything this year. Their coach is fighting for a job and so is there quarterback. The team should rally behind those people, so we expect the Browns to show up in a big way this week. — Go against the chalk with Cleveland

Leave a comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

*