The NFL keeps fans interested in several ways. One of the most glaring avenues of success for the most-watched league in America is the constant changing landscape of NFL teams’ success.
Remember a few years ago when the AFC West was the best division in the NFL? With a fading Denver and Oakland, it doesn’t look as daunting, especially on the defensive side of the ball.
What do oddsmakers think? Here’s the best bets for NFL win totals in the AFC West. Last year, I had a handle on the division, going 3-1 in win totals.
Denver Broncos, over/under 7.5
I’ve been down on the Broncos in recent years.
I wasn’t buying last year’s version and I’m still not buying what they’re selling. This team was built on defense. What used to be the scariest defense in the NFL doesn’t fit the bill anymore.
Von Miller will cause his usual problems for opposing offenses, but the other defenders aren’t going to be as menacing as what we saw just two to three years ago.
Offensively, the Broncos should be better, but that isn’t difficult for an offense that averaged just 4.8 yards per play, a bottom-five number in the NFL.
The offensive line needed help and the Broncos did invest in that, but they’re still well off the pace from other teams in the AFC.
Denver needs more of a makeover, and Case Keenum isn’t enough to take this team to the .500 level. Verdict: Under
Kansas City Chiefs, over/under 7.5
I’ve concluded that Kansas City is the easiest bet in win totals on a yearly basis.
Every year, oddsmakers underestimate the Chiefs. And every year they somehow, miraculously win at least nine games.
I don’t have much of an explanation for the Chiefs to go over 7.5 wins, but they will. Andy Reid is good for at least nine wins and an early playoff loss.
Even without Reid, though, I can’t help but think oddsmakers are valuing the Chiefs too low this year. Patrick Mahomes will be really good, better than Alex Smith, and the defense will be much improved from last year’s unit.
I don’t see any reason why the Chiefs can’t reach eight wins. This is one of my favorite picks of the preseason. — Verdict: Over
Los Angeles Chargers, over/under 9.5
Everyone’s favorite dark horse team in the NFL is the Chargers.
The defense is young and improving. Philip Rivers is a gunslinger, who is a proven winner. And the skill position players are among the best in the AFC.
What’s not to like?
No really, what do you not like about this team? The edge rush is one of the most fearsome in the NFL and the defensive backfield is ridiculous.
I love how the Chargers have invested in the offensive line, positioning themselves for a deep run in the NFL postseason. As long as Los Angeles can stay healthy (which is a big if in certain positions), the Chargers should be a 10-win team. — Verdict: Over
Oakland Raiders, over/under 8.5
This is not an easy decision.
The Raiders will be better than their six-win season a year ago. Derek Carr is good enough to win a few games on his own, so that should be enough to be better than last year.
However, that defense just isn’t good.
They weren’t good two years ago when the Raiders made a playoff run. And they’re still not good.
And while the Raiders made some changes on the defensive side of the ball, I’m not sure those are the moves to put this defense over the top. You can only outscore so many opponents before it runs out.
Two years ago, the Raiders were able to surprise teams by outscoring them. This year, that’s a tough sell without any defensive help. — Verdict: Under
