Unlike the Wild Card round, the favorites owned the day in the divisional round. Three of the four games were covered by the favorites. This weekend should offer some more intrigue, with all these teams being evenly matched.
These were the best teams during the regular season, so it’s no wonder that on a neutral field, it would be feasible that these games would feature an even spread.
I’ve been hot in the playoffs, so here’s my AFC Championship picks for Sunday.
Overall: 53-50-2 ATS
Playoffs: 5-2-1 ATS
New England Patriots (+3) at Kansas City Chiefs
Is it possible to pick against the Patriots? Sure, but is it wise?
Both teams are fairly similar, but New England may own the edge in such a cold weather game. The Chiefs running game has been slowed since releasing Kareem Hunt. That may play a major role in this game, with the temperatures below freezing.
What also may be noteworthy is New England’s defense, which has been a top-10 unit in recent weeks. Kansas City, meanwhile, has been limited on the defensive side of the ball, especially against the run, something New England showed as a strength against Los Angeles in the divisional round.
This game is tough to predict, since Kansas City’s offense has been one of the best offense in the NFL this season. However, picking against the Patriots as an underdog is a difficult chore. New England has the experience and the personnel to compete in this kind of environment, so I wouldn’t pick against New England. — Go Against The Chalk with New England
Over/Under 54.5
With two of the top-four offenses in the NFL squaring off, this number seems low.
However, with the temperatures being so low, it’s not surprising this number is below 55. Sometimes, though, picking the over/under is all about the value, and the over in this instance makes the most sense. It may be cold, but the Chiefs defense is atrocious against the run.
That should work in New England’s favor, which can expose weak parts of defenses. The Patriots will move the ball against the Chiefs, and Kansas City will keep this close. Bet on the over as making the most sense. — Go with the over
