The once vaunted AFC North took a step back last season, with two of its usual contenders falling off a cliff.
Can Cincinnati and Baltimore catch Pittsburgh, which once again enters this season as one of the handful of teams that could knock off New England?
Sportsbook.ag has released its numbers and I’ll look at each division and give my best bets for the upcoming season.
Here’s my look at the AFC North. Last year, I went 3-1 in over/under predictions for the AFC North.
Baltimore Ravens
Over/under 9 (-110 o/-120 u)
I loved Baltimore last year. And while they improved, they were the only team I got wrong in the win totals in the AFC North, because I predicted them to go over 8.5 wins, and they finished with eight.
So now this year, oddsmakers are upping the ante with the Ravens, expecting them to return to their previous glory. I’m not buying it. That offense just doesn’t do anything for me, and we’re stuck with the same old people. Joe Flacco doesn’t have any weapons, with Breshad Perriman likely as his No. 1 receiver and Lorenzo Taliaferro as his starting running back.
Baltimore can’t win games with an intimidating defense anymore. This team feels at best like an 8-8 team, especially with a schedule that starts out with games against Cincinnati, Jacksonville (a team I expect to be much improved), Pittsburgh and Oakland in the first five weeks.
That’s a rough start that could get even worse, with road games against Minnesota, Green Bay, Tennessee and Pittsburgh later in the season. — Verdict: Under
Cincinnati Bengals
Over/under 8.5 (-115 o/-115 u)
Oddsmakers are expecting a bit of a resurgence from a Cincinnati team that won only six games in 2016. It’s tough to argue with oddsmakers, though, when looking at the potential explosiveness of this offense.
The playmakers are there. A.J. Green is a top-tier talent, and the Bengals have depth with pass catchers featuring Tyler Eifert, Brandon LaFell and rookie John Ross. The Bengals also have three legitimate running backs, with Jeremy Hill, Giovani Bernard and rookie Joe Mixon. The biggest question marks are Andy Dalton and an offensive line that didn’t necessarily get better in the offseason.
Defensively, the Bengals should once again employ one of the most talented units in the NFL, so don’t mind last year’s less-than-stellar campaign.
Oddsmakers did a great job at making this number tough. The offensive line troubles me, but I can’t ignore the talent still remaining in Cincinnati. The schedule features roughly six games that I can count on as victories, so I’ll take the Bengals squeaking out another three for the over. — Verdict: Over
Cleveland Browns
Over/under 4.5 (+110 o/-140 u)
This was the same number listed for last year, but the juice was actually with the over, because who would juice the under on 4.5 wins in the NFL? This is the Browns we’re talking about.
Cleveland is a terribly run NFL franchise that doesn’t have a quarterback. But this team isn’t as bad as what people are making it out to be. There is some talent on this roster. They’re still young, but there’s enough talent that this team won’t be another one-win team in 2017.
The Browns spend some of the most money on its offensive line, so that should be one of their strengths. Isaiah Crowell had flashes of decency last year as a running back and Corey Coleman will surprise people as a wide receiver this year.
And the defense has players who can rush the passer. They need to learn how to stop the run, but this defense has improved in the offseason. The Browns play the New York Jets (a team destined for the No. 1 pick in 2018), and the Jacksonville Jaguars at home, while also seeing the Chicago Bears, Los Angeles Chargers and Detroit Lions on the road. There’s a chance the Browns could win those games, and that doesn’t count an upset in another game.
This team will be better in 2017. I’m going against the grain with this one. — Verdict: Over
Pittsburgh Steelers
Over/under 10.5 (-115 o/-115 u)
Pittsburgh missed its shot last year. The team was primed to compete with New England and it fell on its face in the AFC title game. And during the regular season, I didn’t see that urgency that I would have liked to have seen from a team with Super Bowl aspirations.
Still, the Steelers finished with 11 wins and won the AFC North. The team is basically the same from last year, but I just don’t like this team as much as the one last year. Big Ben is only getting older, and while that offensive line was among the best in the NFL in 2016, it’s also going to see some age.
The schedule is easy, so that makes me go back and forth on this pick. Pittsburgh plays 11 games against non-playoff teams from 2016. But I believe some of those teams should be better, so I’m looking at the Steelers regressing a bit, and settling for nine or 10 wins. — Verdict: Under
