One of my favorite picks last year in win totals — Oakland Raiders — went way over the over/under to lead the AFC West.

Oakland was primed to be better and did what I anticipate Jacksonville will do this year, be way over in win totals.

Here’s my look at the AFC West. Last year I went 1-2-1 in over/under predictions for the AFC West.

The Denver Broncos defense will carry the team once again this season. Flickr

Denver Broncos

Over/under 8.5 (even o/-130 u)

Will Denver’s offensive line improve? That’s the major question heading into the 2017 season. The rushing game was the sixth-worst unit in the NFL and the line gave up the ninth-most sacks.

That isn’t the best way to win games with a dominating defense. If you’re not going to have an explosive offense, you have to use up time with a bruising running game and stay ahead of the chains. Denver didn’t do that last year, and I’m not sure if that defense can keep up its torrid pace. The Broncos addressed their line needs in the draft, but I’m not sure it will be enough to be a team over eight wins in a division that keeps getting better.

Denver’s stock is sinking while every other team is rising in the AFC West. — Verdict: Under

Kansas City Chiefs

Over/under 9 (-130 o/even u)

I don’t know why Kansas City keeps winning, but it does. And oddsmakers are tired of it too, juicing the over with a Chiefs team that realistically shouldn’t be a 10-win team.

But are you really going to bet against that happening?

Since Andy Reid took over, the Chiefs have been a guarantee to win at least nine games and lose before the AFC title game. Why stop on that parade again this year? The defense is good enough to keep them in games, while Alex Smith somehow, some way, dinks and dunks his way to double-digit wins with regularity. I’m not losing on this again. Book the Chiefs. — Verdict: Over

Oakland Raiders

Over/under 9.5 (-130 o/even u)

Oakland was the biggest surprise of last year, and had it not been for an injury to Derek Carr, it could have made a better showing in the playoffs.

This number suggests a step back, but I don’t see it. The offensive line is among the best in the NFL, and the team just got Marshawn Lynch as a bruising back to compliment one of the best passing games in the NFL. And while the offense gets most of the publicity, the young defense will be another year older, and should be better.

I like the Raiders to establish themselves as the main contender to New England this season, so they should go over 9.5. — Verdict: Over

Los Angeles Chargers

Over/under 7.5 (-120 o/-110 u)

The Chargers will not only feature a new town in front of their name, they’ll have some new faces, such as new coach Anthony Lynn. He built the Buffalo Bills into the best rushing team in the NFL, so I expect the same attention to the Chargers running game, which could use some work. San Diego was not only in the bottom-10 in rushing yards, but also in the bottom-10 in attempts.

Buffalo, meanwhile, was in the top-five in both categories. With a little more help in the rushing game, that should open up some of those passing lanes that have been tight in recent years for Philip Rivers. The offense could use a new approach, while the defense shouldn’t be too bad. They were middle-of-the-pack last year, and didn’t get any worse in the offseason.

This is a tough one, because I’ve expected more out of the Chargers in recent years and that hasn’t happened. But I’ll stay optimistic. — Verdict: Over

Leave a comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

*