Why keep avoiding the best bet in the Survivor Pool? For the past two seasons, one approach has been a near guarantee for victory in Survivor Pools.
Pick against Cleveland.
If you’re still alive in this year’s Survivor Pool — and congratulations for lasting longer than pretty much everyone else — I’d stick with the anti-Cleveland strategy once again for week 7.
This season has been a roller-coaster ride of favorites not covering and not winning on a regular basis. Underdogs are 39-50 straight up, and they’re doing it as double-digit underdogs in some cases. Week 7 is far different than the previous one, where we don’t have a team even as a touchdown favorite. Last week, we had four double-digit favorites, with two of those losing straight up.
It’s been a tough Survivor Pool for the Chalk this season. But here’s what to expect from the week 7 Survivor Pool.
Best Bet
Tennessee Titans
The Titans are much better than Cleveland. I know there’s some trepidation here with underwhelming results in three straight weeks. Quarterback Marcus Mariota seemed to get stronger in the week 6 matchup against Indianapolis. That’s a good sign for the Titans, which desperately need Mariota for more consistency.
Tennessee moved the ball at will in the second half against the Colts, with Mariota running the show. I expect that once again in week 7 against a Cleveland defense that can’t stop the pass. The Browns are allowing 7.9 yards per completion, the fifth-highest mark in the NFL. And while the rush defense is better in Cleveland, it will be forced to face a team committed to a punishing running game.
I get more talent with the Titans and I face a Browns team that looks lost. Defensively, the Titans will bring exotic blitzes that will create hazards for whoever starts at quarterback for the Browns. I eventually believe the Browns will be better, but this isn’t the matchup. Watch for this game to be close in the first half, but Tennessee will pull away in the second half with a strong running game and an inability by Cleveland to get off the field on third down.
Sleeper Pick
Philadelphia Eagles
It’s scary to pick a divisional game on Monday Night Football. But the Eagles present a nice pick in week 7 thanks to the walking wounded in Washington. The Redskins’ secondary is dealing with massive injuries, eliminating even second-stringers in some cases.
That’s a major issue against Philadelphia’s pass-happy approach. The Eagles are a top-10 passing offense, going for 250 yards through the air each game. Quarterback Carson Wentz has been deadly through the air in terms of touchdowns, going for 13 touchdowns compared to just three interceptions.
A few weeks ago, this matchup would be different. With the injuries adding up for Washington, this is a matchup that tips heavily in Philadelphia’s favor. The Eagles will stop Washington’s attempts to run the football, so this will come down to which pass offense can move the chains more consistently. I trust Philadelphia.
Be Careful
New Orleans Saints
Aaron Rodgers is the most important player in NFL history according to oddsmakers. This spread moved 10 points in a week. That’s a major influence. I believe Rodgers is important, but we don’t know enough about Brett Hundley and the rest of the Packers to underestimate them this week.
Rodgers is by far the best player on the team, but we’ve seen other instances where teams have come back from catastrophic injuries and not be as bad as we believed. Maybe they’ll be terrible. Maybe they won’t.
Trusting that Green Bay will take a major step back without Rodgers against a team that doesn’t have a defense is too much to ask for in week 7. New Orleans’ defense is terrible. If Hundley has a pulse, he should be able to move this offense periodically up and down the field.
We don’t have enough information about Green Bay to trust the Saints in this spot. I’d steer clear of this pick.
