Last week was a bit off for the NFL betting guide, going 1-2. That still puts us at 6-3 overall in the betting guide, so we’re banking on last week being a minor step back.
Teams are beginning to show what they actually will be for the duration of the season. For handicappers, now is the time to expose some of these spreads.
Here are three games to watch Sunday in the NFL.
New York Jets (-2) vs. Miami in London
We expected the Jets to come crashing back to earth last week after generating too much hype with wins in weeks 1 and 2. New York didn’t look great against Philadelphia, but many of the mistakes are correctable.
The Jets defense still dominated the Eagles for the most part. The Jets limited Sam Bradford in the passing game, allowing 118 yards passing, and 231 total net yards for the Eagles.
We’re not worried about New York’s defense. It was the offense we were concerned about entering last week’s tilt, and Ryan Fitzpatrick threw three interceptions to go with three touchdowns. That should be better this week against a Dolphins defense that has underachieved. And we don’t have to worry about the more than 100 yards rushing the Jets allowed last week since the Dolphins are committed to not running.
Until the Dolphins can devote more than a few carries a game to the run, we’re not buying into the Dolphins winning games like this. Miami will throw and the Jets will be hard on Ryan Tannehill in London. — Go chalk with New York Jets
Philadelphia (-3) at Washington
Have we changed our tune about Philadelphia?
Last week, everyone was writing their obituary. This week, the Eagles are favored on the road. That’s a large swing of momentum.
Despite the new love for the Eagles, we’re not sure why everyone’s falling in love with Philadelphia again. It wasn’t as if the Eagles were that good last week. The offense still struggled to move the ball consistently, and if it wasn’t for building a solid lead in the first half, we’re not sure if the Eagles could have made it out of that game with a win.
The Jets were able to mount a late comeback, but it was too little, too late.
The Redskins, though, have looked good at home, and struggled last week on the road on a Thursday night last week against the New York Giants. We’re not concerned about that outcome, since several teams struggle with the road Thursday night game.
The Redskins can shut down the run, which they’ve done all season. If that happens, Sam Bradford has been unable to prove his ability to move the chains. Washington forces the Eagles to pass often in this game, and Philadelphia’s alleged potent offense gets grounded again. — Go against the chalk with Washington
St. Louis (+7.5) at Arizona
You’d have to be crazy to bet against Arizona this year. Call us crazy, but that’s what we’re doing this week.
The Cardinals have been unstoppable in the past two weeks, and have been the best team in the NFL against the spread.
So why are we going with the Rams? We’re not exactly going with St. Louis to win, but it’s time to get off the Cardinals bandwagon while oddsmakers favor them too much.
We still like Arizona. We actually think it’s the top team in the NFC, even compared to the Green Bay Packers.
But the level of competition has been horrible thus far. The three teams Arizona has defeated are 1-7 overall. The Rams, meanwhile, have squared off against Seattle, Pittsburgh and at Washington.
At least two of those three teams can play defense, and the Steelers have showed glimpses of improving on that side of the ball. The Rams aren’t explosive, so this game should be a slower moving contest than what Arizona has been used to this season.
St. Louis takes the air out of the ball and slows this one down. That should frustrate the high-flying Cardinals enough, that this game stays within one possession. — Go against the chalk with St. Louis
Other NFL games
Spreads provided by Oddsshark
New York Giants at Buffalo (-5)
Oakland (-3.5) at Chicago (Opening line has moved 2.5 points in Oakland direction)
Jacksonville at Indianapolis (-9)
Houston at Atlanta (-5.5)
Carolina (-3.5) at Tampa Bay
Kansas City at Cincinnati (-4) (Opening line has moved 1 point in Cincinnati direction)
Cleveland at San Diego (-7)
Minnesota at Denver (-7) (Opening line has moved 2.5 points in Denver direction)
Green Bay (-9) at San Francisco
Dallas at New Orleans (-3) (Opening line has moved 4 points in Dallas direction)
Detroit at Seattle (-10)
