Now that the Super Bowl competition is heating up (OK, at least in the NFC), there is a clearer picture of which teams should garner the most attention in handicapping.
There’s little reason to look at the AFC. New England is on a revenge trip through the NFL thanks to Deflategate, so there’s no viable opponent in the AFC. There’s zero chance, other than New England’s bus crashing on the way to the stadium this week of them losing to Houston, so it would have to take a monster effort by either Kansas City or Pittsburgh in the AFC Conference Championship round to sneak a way into the Super Bowl.
And despite the pundits loving Pittsburgh, I just don’t see it. Ben Roethlisberger is in a walking boot and there’s little to love in this recent winning streak. The Steelers have beaten two playoffs teams (Miami and New York Giants) in the last eight games.
That doesn’t give me enough hope against a Patriots team on a different level. New England has the No. 1 scoring defense for a reason, so I just don’t see Pittsburgh doing enough offensively to keep up with New England. The Steelers still have to get by Kansas City, which I’m not so sure about, but if they do, I still favor the Patriots at horrible 5/11 odds to win the AFC Championship. Even if those are some of the worst odds ever, sometimes it’s better to take trash odds than odds without a chance.
So, pretty much the only play is whether New England will win the Super Bowl, which they’re going off at 3/2, or looking at the NFC for a better answer.
The best NFC team in the NFL playoffs is Dallas at 9/2, but Atlanta is just behind at 6/1.
And while the top two seeds in NFC should attract some action, I’m looking at Green Bay as the best pick. The Packers are 10/1 odds, tied for the second-worst odds to win the Super Bowl with Seattle. Since losing to Washington on Nov. 20, the Packers have been unstoppable, though.
The lowest output on offense since that time was a snowstorm game against Houston in early December, which was played in a snowstorm. Other than that game, Green Bay has only scored less than 30 points once since Nov. 20.
And for the most part, the Packers are doing damage through the air, which is a bad sign for the top-two seeds in the NFC. Dallas and Atlanta own bottom-10 pass defenses. And while Green Bay also owns a bad pass defense, if the Packers get into a shootout with Dallas and Atlanta, I’ll choose Aaron Rodgers over Dak Prescott and Matt Ryan any day.
While Green Bay is not a top-tier pass defense, the rush defense should be able to give Dallas’s top-flight rush offense some headaches. The Packers are a top-10 rush defense, which should put pressure on the rookie Prescott. The matchup doesn’t work for Dallas in this game, so keep an eye on the Packers making some more noise in the playoffs.
