It’s tempting to follow the public and go with Carolina in Super Bowl 50. But there’s a reason why underdogs had their best season since 2006.
The public hasn’t necessarily had the best season this year. Underdogs were by far the best choice this year and the fact that the public has bumped the Panthers from a 3.5-point favorite to a six-point favorite in the week since the line opened is a strong indication to fade the public.
Carolina was solid against the spread this season, but toward the end of the season, when the lines moved up, the Panthers were less impressive. The Panthers were no less than a five-point favorite in the final five games of the regular season and covered only two of those five contests.
The Panthers have covered in the playoffs, but those numbers were within a field goal. And for Carolina, that matters. Carolina is 10-0 against the spread in games where it was either an underdog or favored by four points or less.
The Super Bowl won’t fall into that category. In games that Carolina was more than four-point favorites, the Panthers were 3-5 ATS.
For Denver, the number works in its favor. The Broncos were underdogs four times this season, including the playoffs, and finished with a 4-0 mark ATS, with three of those covers coming as victories.
The Broncos won’t come at the Panthers with a dominating offense, but they will showcase the NFL’s best defense. And when a team has extra time to prepare, we usually side with the better defense. Carolina’s defense has been one of the best defenses in the NFL, too, but lately, it has left quite a bit to desire.
They feast on turnovers and that’s what helped last week against Arizona. The Panthers failed to finish against Seattle, the New York Giants, New Orleans and Atlanta in the last seven games. Carolina was plus-20 in the regular season in the turnover department, which for many, would offer plenty of excitement for the Panthers’ cover.
In the gambling world, though, turnovers aren’t regarded as a significant statistic. Turnovers generally work themselves out, so we’re not getting too excited about that number. What can the Panthers do when they don’t turn over the opposition?
Carolina played in only five of 18 games (including the playoffs) where it played even over lost the turnover battle against the opposition. The Panthers’ margin of victory in those five games, which included their lone loss, a seven-point setback against Atlanta, was 3.4 points.
The safest bet is to go with Denver plus the six points. Put the bulk of your money on that gamble, but also place a smaller wager on the moneyline for the Broncos. At -105, that could provide a solid return on an investment. If Denver only covers, it’s a nice day. If it wins, then it sets you up for March Madness time.
