Carolina wasn’t only the best team straight up during the 2015 NFL season. The Panthers did serious work to the spread during its 15-1 campaign.
The Panthers were a top-three team against the spread, going 11-5 ATS during the regular season, and then tacking on two more covers in the playoffs for a 72.2 percent cover rate.
That ranked third in terms of cover percentage, and its margin of victory overall and against the spread was by far the best in the NFL.
Carolina won by an average of 12.9 points per game, outdistancing second-place New England by more than four points per game. Carolina also was money in terms of margin of victory against the spread, winning by an average of nine points per game against the number.
Kansas City was second with a plus-5.1 mark ATS.
Bettors who backed the Panthers early in the season reaped the biggest benefits. Carolina began the season 9-2 against the spread, before going through some cover struggles in the latter part of the season with a 2-3 ATS mark.
Part of the reason for late-season struggles was oddsmakers’ ability to finally adjust to Carolina’s winning ways.
In Carolina’s first six games, the Panthers were a three-point favorite four times, against Jacksonville, Houston, Tampa Bay and Philadelphia. We can only imagine what those spreads would have been like toward the end of the season.
The other two games in that span were Carolina as a seven-point underdog against Seattle and a 10-point favorite against a Drew Brees-less New Orleans team.
The definitive moment for oddsmakers came on Thanksgiving. Carolina entered the contest as underdogs to the Cowboys. That’s right, Carolina was undefeated and actually an underdog to Dallas.
From that point, the Panthers were no less than a five-point favorite in the final five games. Before that Dallas game, Carolina was only a five-point favorite or more in three different games.
In fact, Carolina’s only losses against the number were against bigger spreads. In games where the Panthers were favored by five points or more, they were 3-5 ATS. In games where they were underdogs or favorites by four points or less, the Panthers were 8-0 ATS.
The early line for the Super Bowl is Carolina favored by five points.
