Only one game remains in the 2015 NFL season, so we’re turning that sad reality into our way too early look at the 2016 fantasy football draft.
In this edition of looking ahead to 2016, we’re looking at the quarterbacks who finished sixth to 10th this past season, and will judge how well they’ll finish next year compared to their stats this past season.
6. Drew Brees, New Orleans, 304.20 points
Hype train: Hop off
Brees is good for being in that discussion as a top-flight option in fantasy football on a yearly basis. The only issue with him is that some fantasy football owner will nab him way too early, decreasing his value.
Take this past year for example. His overall ranking was 56th and he was the fifth-rated quarterback. If fantasy owners were waiting for Brees, they didn’t have much luck, because his ADP was 35, putting him 21 spots ahead of his overall rating and in the third round.
That’s too high for Brees nowadays. If his grade was more in the sixth round, that would give him far more value, but his inconsistency on a weekly basis cannot be ignored.
He’s still good for big outputs, but he’s also good for duds, as seen this past season and in 2014. He managed eight games with less than 20 points this past season, which isn’t good enough for a starting quarterback picked in the third round.
He finished strong, which should give a little hope, but his inability to string together multiple strong outings for the most part, gives us pause on Brees.
7. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay, 301.24 points
Hype train: All Aboard
If Rodgers is rated anything outside of the top-three for quarterbacks, we’re all in. That would likely put him in the third round, which would be the steal of the fantasy football draft.
Rodgers had a very un-Rodgers-like season in 2015. He was expected to be a top-tier performer, with a first-round ADP, but Rodgers showed that he isn’t actually Superman when his offensive line has difficulties and his receiving corps can’t get open.
Next year, though, that should be fixed as Jordy Nelson returns, and the Packers will be healthy on the offensive line. If health isn’t an issue for Packers, we have Rodgers graded out similarly as he was heading into 2015. Rodgers will square off against five defenses next year that ranked in the bottom-10 of the NFL in passing defenses in 2015.
Expect Rodgers to be back to his old ways next season.
8. Kirk Cousins, Washington, 293.44 points
Hype train: Hop off
A year of tape for defensive coordinators will be a bad omen for Cousins.
He was great at times this season for the Redskins. He had some struggles on the road, but he worked through those struggles and did well toward the end of the season.
The only issue is that he did most of his damage against sub-.500 teams and next season will be a far bigger challenge as defensive coordinators adjust to Cousins. And he has a rude awakening next season when he faces Arizona, Carolina, Cincinnati and Minnesota.
If he was a middle-tier quarterback, we’d jump aboard with Cousins. When the rankings come out, and if his grade is in the double-digits, then we would reconsider jumping off the hype train. Fantasy owners could do a lot worse than Cousins in a later round, but we doubt many fantasy owners can resist him as an early round option.
9. Matthew Stafford, Detroit, 289.70 points
Hype train: All aboard
Stafford flew under the radar as a top-10 fantasy quarterback. The Lions were atrocious early in the season, but closed on a high note, which should give them confidence for the upcoming season.
That could bode well for Stafford, who also finished strong this past season.
Stafford entered the season as the 12th-ranked quarterback and he should enter next season likely with a similar grade. If he’s in that 12 to 14 range, we like him as a solid option for fantasy teams.
We don’t believe fantasy owners will value him high next season and he should still have several weapons at his disposal, including Golden Tate, who should be a better fantasy option next year with a year under his belt in Detroit.
Regardless of your perception of Stafford, he’s been a quality option several years for fantasy owners. That should continue next season.
10. Eli Manning, New York Giants, 287.54 points
Hype train: Just right
Fantasy owners should have enough information on what to do with Manning.
He can produce points in big chunks as evidenced by his 38 fantasy points against New Orleans. But he also can produce several games where fantasy owners wonder why he’s even on the roster, like his six-point effort against Dallas.
But he’s shown to stay healthy and with a new coach, he may become more consistent (that’s a big maybe). He gets several opportunities at fantasy points since the Giants have no running game. We don’t see that changing next season, so Manning will likely be in that 10 to 12 range again among quarterbacks.
That’s about right with his output and what he should contribute next season.
