It’s J.J. Watt or bust for the NFL’s Defensive Player of the Year according to oddsmakers. Based on the past few years, there’s a good reason why he’s so heavily favored.
Oddsmakers are listing the Texans defensive standout as +250 to win the award, far outdistancing the field for the honor that he’s won three of the past four seasons. Only two other players own better odds than +1000 – Denver’s Von Miller at +600 and Oakland’s Khalil Mack at +700.
Mack dominated in his sophomore season and Miller has been a consistent force in the sack category for the Broncos.
Watt is the consensus choice, but at some point he’s going to come crashing back down to earth. He faded a bit toward the end of the season last year, going for one sack total in five of his final six games.
I’m banking on a year with double-digit sacks, but not in the upper teens or 20s, which is the range he’s been in three of the previous four seasons.
For my money, I’m buying Mack. He’s a beast and is only getting better. He doesn’t have the name recognition yet, but by the end of this season, he should be a household name. Everyone who watches the NFL on a more than semi-regular basis already knows how good the Raiders will be this season. When Oakland starts putting up wins and having players like Mack and Amari Cooper putting up monster numbers, the casual fan will start to take notice, helping Mack’s candidacy for Defensive Player of the Year.
He was the best athlete in his draft class and he’ll continue to show why he’ll be a solid NFL player for years to come again this season.
If you’re looking for a potential darkhorse candidate, Arizona’s Tyron Matheiu offers great value at +2000 and could make a splash on the national stage. Part of the award is a popularity contest and Matheiu is offered enough opportunities at the safety position to make flashy plays.
That matters, especially when looking for an underdog. The Cardinals have a good enough defense that should force quarterbacks into difficult situations. That plays well into Matheiu’s game, which could open up the possibility of registering more interceptions.
