Last week didn’t go as planned with a a below-.500 record against the spread.
It’s a new week, though, and in week 2, we expect to know a little more about each team. As mentioned before, it’s difficult to predict the NFL and college football games in the early weeks since teams aren’t quite what they will become as the season progresses.
Here’s our five Lockness Monsters of the week for week 2 of the NFL season.
Last week: 2-3 ATS
Detroit at Minnesota (-3)
We hate when teams have to go back-to-back on the road in the NFL. Detroit went to the West Coast against San Diego and allowed more than 400 yards passing in week 1.
The Lions are back on the road this week with a matchup against the Vikings, which looked awful in a Monday night loss against San Francisco. But with Detroit having to travel two weeks in a row, this game should go in Minnesota’s favor.
The Vikings won’t be as bad as they were Monday and the Lions don’t seem prepared to stop the pass if the front line doesn’t get any pressure. Minnesota’s gameplan should involve more Adrian Peterson, meaning Detroit’s front seven will be preoccupied with stopping Peterson, and Teddy Bridgewater should have better passing lanes to throw.
Don’t overreact to week 1’s disappointment by the Vikings. They should still be considered a sleeper this year and they will improve from week 1. — Go chalk with Minnesota
St. Louis at Washington (+3.5)
Gobble up the points with the Redskins. The betting public is loving the Rams because they defeated Seattle in week 1.
Let’s look at what happened after St. Louis used big plays, much like it did in week 1, against Seattle to win in 2014 in St. Louis. The next week against Kansas City, the Rams laid an egg, losing 34-7.
We can’t expect the Rams to have that many big plays again. The Redskins stopped the Dolphins from breaking open anything on offense last week, and Miami has more weapons offensively than the Rams.
The Redskins should be able to run the ball and if they can limit the turnovers, Washington should cover this spread. — Go against the chalk with Washington
Miami at Jacksonville (+6.5)
We’re not feeling great about Jacksonville after week 1. The offense sputtered out of the gates and made Carolina’s defense look like world beaters.
We’ve seen this song and dance before from the Jaguars and many believed the ineptitude on offense wouldn’t be a problem this year with some key additions on the offensive end.
Miami, on the other hand, covered against Washington, but it didn’t look good while doing it. The Dolphins struggled with the passing game and they didn’t stretch the field, which has been their Achilles Heel in the past few years.
Oddsmakers are giving almost a touchdown with the Jaguars at home. The Dolphins are traveling for their second week in the row, which is difficult for NFL teams in the early going. The Jaguars will stop the run, forcing the Dolphins into being a one-dimensional team. — Go against the chalk with Jacksonville
Arizona (-2.5) at Chicago
Will Chicago keep its gameplan focused on the running game?
We’re not sure if it can run on Arizona’s defense, after the Cardinals allowed the least amount of rushing yards in week 1 against New Orleans last week.
If the game shifts to Jay Cutler, we believe Arizona’s secondary is better, giving the Cardinals the edge. Personnel-wise, it’s hard to argue with Arizona being one of the best teams in the NFL. The only reason Arizona faded last season was because they just didn’t have anyone at the quarterback position.
Carson Palmer can do more than just manage a game and he will be needed in this one with Andre Ellington out with injury. Palmer will do enough and that defense will stuff the Bears. — Go chalk with Arizona
New England (-2) at Buffalo
New England is good at making the hot team look ordinary.
Buffalo became the darling of the NFL after its domination of Indianapolis in week 1. With injury issues with LeSean McCoy and Tyrod Taylor manning the quarterback position, the Patriots defense is a good matchup against the Bills offense.
The Bills will do a good job defensively, but if this game comes down to the last possession, we trust Tom Brady more than anyone on the Bills’ roster.
Watch for the Patriots defense to have something special in store for the Bills offense. — Go chalk with New England
