Sunday proved to be a tough day for Survivor picks…and it could have been even worse.
Popular picks like the Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs, both touchdown or more favorites entering the day, lost. Atlanta and the New York Giants, also teams that were touchdown or more favorites, could have made the day even worse had they lost.
Falcons won on a pick-6 in overtime, while the Giants won on a late touchdown.
As is the case in the NFL, it’s tough to predict spreads, let alone winners each week. Here’s our best bet for which team will help you escape with a win in your Survivor pool.
Best bet
Minnesota Vikings
We’re assuming that Green Bay has already been taken, so we’re going with another NFC North team.
We haven’t understood why the Kansas City Chiefs have gotten so much love this season. Sure, the Chiefs dominated week 1 on the road, but that was against Houston, and we’ve seen how well it has played this season.
Maybe our perceptions just haven’t changed, but in the last three weeks, the Chiefs have been awful. Kansas City has lost two of three games by double digits against Cincinnati and Green Bay, and gave up a 14-point home lead to the Chicago Bears as 9.5-point favorites this past weekend.
And the Chiefs’ best player, Jamaal Charles, is now out with an injury.
Let’s not dismiss the Vikings at home, either.
Quietly, the Vikings are making the University of Minnesota’s field their own homefield advantage.
Minnesota is 7-3 at home since last season, and this season, Minnesota has shown a clear difference between home and away games. In road games, the Vikings have been outscored by 20 points. At home, the Vikings are plus-27.
The Vikings have some work to do in the passing game, but with Kansas City’s leaky defense, Minnesota should be able to find holes in the passing game. Also, with Adrian Peterson getting another week of practice and getting back to NFL game speed after a bye week, he should be even stronger than before.
Minnesota shouldn’t have much trouble stopping the Chiefs or moving the ball. Don’t be caught in last year with Kansas City. Get off that bandwagon now or ride it off the cliff this season.
Sleeper pick
Jacksonville Jaguars
Welcome home Jacksonville. After three consecutive road games, where the Jaguars went 0-3, Jacksonville is back at home and should have an advantage against the Houston Texans.
Who’s the quarterback for this quarter for the Texans? Brian Hoyer is the starter this week, but who knows how long that will last.
And Jacksonville hasn’t been that bad, other than against New England a few weeks ago.
The Jaguars have been one of the best teams against the rush (other than last week), and that should be a strong asset against the Texans. With Arian Foster back in the lineup, the Texans are attempting to get back to the identity of running the football.
That won’t work as well against Jacksonville.
The Texans haven’t found an identity, and if they try to find one this week, it won’t happen.
Be careful
Seattle Seahawks
If you haven’t taken Seattle, then this week isn’t the week to trust the Seahawks.
There’s something wrong with Seattle. Detroit isn’t that good and Seattle struggled throughout that game two weeks ago.
And when the once-dominant Seattle defense grabbed a big lead against Cincinnati this past weekend, the Seahawks allowed Andy Dalton to orchestrate a massive comeback.
So, we’re not siding with the homefield advantage, this time.
Carolina is coming off a bye week and so far has been one of the most impressive teams in the NFL. Cam Newton is having a MVP-type season, despite not having any weapons to target.
The Panthers are well-rested and there’s something missing with the Seahawks. Don’t blindly walk into the homefield advantage argument this week with Seattle. It might let you down.
Thoughts on the Jets hosting Washington? They should be well rested off the bye, with Ivory and Decker healthy and Richardson back. Washington is missing Cousins’ favorite target, Reed, and I don’t see them playing well on the road for two straight games.
That game screams letdown for the Redskins. There are a lot of things working against the ‘Skins in this one. I hate back-to-back road games for NFL teams and I can’t forget how Washington lost the last game. A pick-six in overtime is tough to come back from. Washington is coming off of two close games in a row and the Jets are well-rested. There also won’t be many opportunities to take the Jets, so that should be a pretty safe Survivor pick.