The 2016 Super Bowl will feature a rematch of the 2014 season’s rendition of the New England Patriots vs. the Seattle Seahawks.
That’s at least what oddsmakers are expecting.
With the schedule now released, the odds have been showcased for what teams have the best odds to win their respective conferences. New England is a solid favorite in the AFC at +300, while the Seahawks own a slight edge in the NFC at +450.
Despite not being at the top of the odds, last year’s Super Bowl teams are still not being completely dismissed. The Broncos and the Panthers own the third-best odds in each conference, with Carolina going off at +600 and Denver at +650. Pittsburgh and Green Bay have the second-best odds in their conferences at +600 and +550, respectively.
The only other teams under +1000 in each conference are Cincinnati, Minnesota and Arizona. The Bengals are +800, while the Cardinals are +700 and the Vikings are +750.
As far as value is concerned, I’m going to treat the Broncos like I treated Peyton Manning as a fantasy football quarterback heading into the 2015 season. He was undraftable for me before the season began and turned out to be one of the worst picks in all of fantasy football last season.
The Broncos are going to still get the benefit of the doubt this season based on last year’s Super Bowl victory, but I can’t forget how they got there. Denver struggled mightily at times last season, especially on the offensive end. That won’t change this season and that defense can’t possibly be as good as it was last season.
The Steelers, Patriots and Bengals offer so much more than the Broncos, based on getting better on both sides of the ball and having experienced signal callers behind center. Denver believes it can win without much production at the quarterback position. It did it in 2015, but what many people don’t take into account is how important that position is for continued success.
Being a factor in the AFC title race without a quarterback for a year is doable. To continue that success, it’s impossible to do it without a competent quarterback.
Teams with worse odds that may be worth a look in the AFC are the Indianapolis Colts and Baltimore Ravens. The Colts are at +1200, only a year removed from being a Super Bowl favorite before the 2015 season. Andrew Luck’s injury highlighted some major problems for the Colts, but this team is still good enough to compete for a championship. We’re only two years removed from Indianapolis competing in the AFC title game. Expect Luck to come back far better this season with better health.
The Ravens are +1800 and this is based completely on stability at the quarterback and coaching positions. The Ravens can’t possibly be this bad for two years in a row, so I’m looking for a much improved season. Injuries decimated Baltimore’s season and spirit last season, so if that gets better (and it should), the Ravens should be back in the playoff mix.
For the NFC, I don’t have much of a problem with the teams toward the top. I’m a bit down on the Cardinals this season based on the offense being completely exposed in the NFC championship game last year. However, Arizona still has plenty of talent on both sides of the ball, so I wouldn’t be completely surprised if Arizona is back in the conference championship picture again this season.
For better value, I’m eyeing the New York Giants. New York has some firepower on both sides of the ball, but hasn’t put the pieces together in the last few seasons. With a new coach and new outlook, I’m looking for New York to finally put it together this season. If the Giants can stay more consistent on the defensive side of the ball and limit turnovers offensively, the Giants should sneak into the NFC East title picture and beyond.
