The NFL Lockness Monsters continue to stay north of the .500 mark, going 3-2 last week. That is one week removed from a perfect week.
Here’s our five best bets for week 4 of the NFL season.
Last week: 3-2 ATS
Season: 10-5 ATS
Oakland at Chicago (+3.5)
Why would anyone trust the Chicago Bears?
We might be brain dead, but we’re actually going more against the Raiders, than for the Bears. After this week, we may not take the Bears again. But this week, the situation is ripe for a letdown by the Raiders.
Oakland has gone from a touchdown underdog in week 2 to a field goal underdog in week three to a field goal favorite in week 4. That’s an incredible difference in a three-week period.
The Raiders are young. Talented, but young. This is the first time this season that Oakland is traveling on the road in consecutive weeks. That’s difficult for veterans, and almost impossible for young teams.
The Bears aren’t very good, but we expect the Bears to run the ball plenty, while leaning on a defense that has been decent this season, minus the mess against Arizona in week 2. We don’t like the quarterback situation in Chicago, but we’re going against the Raiders, and taking the points in Chicago. — Go against the chalk with Chicago
Cleveland at San Diego (-7.5)
San Diego hasn’t been very good this season, but don’t dismiss the Chargers just yet.
The Browns had opportunities at home in the past two weeks, but looked good for about one half against Tennessee in week 2. Other than that, Cleveland has been inconsistent on offense and unable to stop anyone on defense.
That won’t go over well with the Chargers, which will return home for the first time since week 1. San Diego’s offense has been a disappointment in the past two weeks, but we’re still encouraged by the effort by San Diego in week 2 against Cincinnati.
The Bengals are still as good as ever, and San Diego gave them all they could handle. Last week was bad, but we’ll chalk that up to being on the road two consecutive weeks, and the Vikings being better than advertised in week 1.
The Chargers should move the ball well against the Browns, and will stop Cleveland enough to cover the more than the touchdown spread. — Go chalk with San Diego
New York Giants (+5.5) at Buffalo
Buffalo is another team that has seen quite a rise in being a favorite.
Last week, the Bills traveled to Miami as a field goal underdog. This week, against a Giants team that has entered all three fourth quarters this season with a lead, the Bills are more than a field goal favorite.
That’s too much of a swing from week-to-week. The Giants aren’t that bad. It’s just that New York can’t finish games on a weekly basis. If New York could finish, it might be undefeated, or at least have a winning record.
New York also enters this game with more than week to prepare for the Bills. We do like Buffalo’s ability to move the ball and play defense this season, but the Giants should be able to stay close throughout this game. Don’t trust the Bills as a solid favorite yet. The Giants have the players to compete and should keep this close. — Go against the chalk with New York
Houston (+6) at Atlanta
Atlanta has been one of the biggest surprises this season in the NFL.
But much like the other teams on this list, they’ve seen a meteoric rise over the weeks in comparison with the spread.
In weeks 1 and 2, the Falcons were underdogs, and last week, they were less than a field goal favorite at Dallas. Now this week, bettors are giving away almost a touchdown with the Falcons.
That’s too much to ask from the Falcons at this point.
Houston earned its first win last week, and after a rough start against Kansas City in week 1, hasn’t looked too bad in weeks 2 and 3 against Carolina and Tampa Bay.
And it appears the Texans got their running game going last week, and if that’s the case, look for the balance on offense to aid the Texans going forward. The Falcons should win, but the Texans will keep it close. — Go against the chalk with Houston
Minnesota (+7) at Denver
We were down on Denver heading into this season. Maybe we’re bullheaded, but we’re anticipating the Broncos to show their true colors sooner rather than later.
Denver hasn’t looked particularly good in any of its wins this season. The Vikings, on the other hand, have looked good the last two weeks after a disappointing start to the season.
The Vikings’ defensive line should pose a major problem for Peyton Manning. Minnesota has six sacks so far this season, and has limited opposing quarterbacks to an 85.4 QB rating.
Manning won’t have much time to pass on Sunday, limiting his ability to move the ball against Minnesota’s talented secondary. We’re concerned with Teddy Bridgewater’s ability to consistently move the ball, too, especially against a good Denver Broncos pass defense. But if Minnesota sticks with the Adrian Peterson gameplan, this game should be within a touchdown. — Go against the chalk with Minnesota
