For the first time this season, our NFL Lockness Monsters bombed. We failed to get into the win category, so if you just started following us last week, take that results with a grain of salt.

We’ve been over .500 ATS for the majority of weeks with our five best bets and we’re shrugging off last week as just a bad week.

Last week: 0-4-1 ATS

Season: 23-16-1 ATS

The Pittsburgh Steelers should be a quality Survivor pool pick. Flickr/http://bit.ly/1iAQv7r/Jeffrey Beall
The Pittsburgh Steelers should be a quality Survivor pool pick. Flickr/http://bit.ly/1iAQv7r/Jeffrey Beall

Oakland at Pittsburgh (-4.5)

OK, we were way wrong about Oakland last week. They were bottom dwellers in our fantasy predictions and our gambling projections last week and they made us look pretty foolish.

So…we’re picking against them again.

The betting public is falling in love with the Raiders, moving this line from 6 to 4.5 points. We mentioned this before the season and we’ll mention it again. Oakland has the talent to compete with almost any team in the NFL.

But that talent is young, so expect inconsistency. We saw the offense light up the New York Jets last week, but we should have known better. The Jets are historically a terrible team on the West Coast. New York has played five games since 2011 in the western part of the United States. The Jets are now 0-5 straight up in those games.

That game had more to do with the Jets than the Raiders. Oakland will make the coast-to-coast trip for an early afternoon game. And Ben Roethlisberger has one game under his belt. Don’t worry about Le’Veon Bell’s injury either. The Steelers have managed that situation before and this won’t slow down that offense.

The Raiders won’t be able to keep up with the Steelers in this one. — Go chalk with Pittsburgh

The Minnesota Vikings have been hot against the spread. Flickr/http://bit.ly/1fo7Sqm/Mike Morbeck
The Minnesota Vikings have been hot against the spread. Flickr/http://bit.ly/1fo7Sqm/Mike Morbeck

St. Louis at Minnesota (-3)

The Vikings are hot…straight up and against the spread.

Minnesota is 5-2 straight up and 6-0 against the spread since week 1. Oddsmakers seem to be doubting the Vikings, which is OK for us, since we’ve been riding this tide for the majority of the season.

Quarterback Teddy Bridgewater has to do more for the Vikings offense to succeed, but we’re being patient. Injuries have hindered some of his weapons and as those players become healthier, he should do more. The running game is still there and that defense is the calling card.

The Rams are a very similar team to the Vikings. St. Louis utilizes a strong pass rush, and combines that with a solid running game. We’re not expecting too many points, but we’re giving the edge to the home team.

Minnesota has long had a strong home-field advantage, and even in its temporary stadium, that edge is still clear. The Vikings are undefeated at home this season and have won their last seven of eight games at home dating back to last season. — Go chalk with Minnesota

The Tennessee Titans have been a surprise against the spread this season. Flickr
The Tennessee Titans have been a surprise against the spread this season. Flickr

Tennessee (+8.5) at New Orleans

We were all over Tennessee to at least show up against the Houston Texans last week. That bombed, which was indicative of our day last week.

Despite having to meander through back-to-back road games, we’re still looking for the Titans to compete. We’ve seen this before from New Orleans. You believe they’re on the right track after a few good games, and then they have a complete letdown.

That’s what we’re anticipating this week. There are still some real issues with the Saints. The defense has trouble stopping anyone and that offense, despite what happened last week, hasn’t been as explosive as in past years.

We’re impressed with this three-game stretch for the Saints, but Tennessee has a top-five pass defense and should limit the Saints’ offensive opportunities. Sometimes a fired coach brings a team together. We’re looking for that to happen with the Titans. — Go against the chalk with Tennessee

Miami at Buffalo (-3)

That was a fun little two-game ride we saw with Miami.

The Dolphins hammered the Titans and Texans (impressive!), and then flopped on national television against New England.

The Bills have fallen on some hard times, but we’re not giving up on the Bills just yet. Quarterback Tyrod Taylor returns this week and Buffalo should have gotten healthier during its bye week.

The Dolphins just can’t stop the run and that doesn’t bode well against Taylor’s mobility and LeSean McCoy. The Bills will run early and often, which is a bad sign for anyone backing the Dolphins.

Buffalo should be able to stop the Dolphins rushing game, forcing Miami into a one-dimensional attack. And when Miami becomes only a passing team, it loses. — Go chalk with Buffalo

Philadelphia (-3) at Dallas

This spread has taken on a whole new life since the opening line.

The Cowboys opened as 2.5-point favorites, and now, the Eagles are three-point favorites. Dallas has been a dumpster fire since losing Tony Romo.

We still like the talent for Dallas, but coming off a bye week, we like the Eagles. Philadelphia is healthier than Dallas and should be able to control the game defensively.

The Cowboys can’t move the ball consistently enough to do any damage against the Eagles. And we haven’t been high on Philadelphia’s offense either, but after a bye week, we believe head coach Chip Kelly will have a gameplan to beat the Cowboys.

This is a tough call, but take the Eagles on the road and watch the Cowboys sink even further into disarray.

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