Oddsshark recently released over/under regular season win totals for National Football League teams.
Here is a look at the Green Bay Packers in the NFC North.
Over/under
Oddsshark has Green Bay at 11 regular season wins. Last year, the Packers went 12-4 in the regular season.
The upside
Aaron Rodgers.
The end.
OK, maybe there should be a little more in this section, but as long as Rodgers continues to be the best quarterback in the NFL, the Packers should be considered one of the favorites to make the Super Bowl.
The Packers finished last year with the number 1 scoring offense in the NFL, thanks to Rodgers, running back Eddie Lacy, and wide receivers Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb.
The offense shouldn’t take a step back and the defense has enough playmakers to keep opposing teams from marching up and down the field at will. Clay Matthews should be a disruptive player again this season, and the defense is likely to cause turnovers after ranking ninth in the NFL in that category last season.
Green Bay also doesn’t worry about divisional opponents. Last season, Green Bay was 5-1 against NFC North teams. The Packers have won the division four straight seasons, and the teams, other than possibly the Minnesota Vikings, haven’t gotten better since last year.
The downside
Sure, the defense isn’t that bad, but it’s not that great either. It showed against the Dallas Cowboys last season in the NFC Divisional round, and it crept up again late in the NFC Championship game against the Seahawks.
If the Packers’ offense isn’t moving the ball well, they won’t dominate the opposition. And if it squares off against a team, like the Cowboys, that can control the game on offense, Green Bay will struggle. How often does Green struggle on the offense end? Not much. But when it does happen, the defense isn’t good enough to pick up the slack.
The defense is predicated on forcing turnovers, which it can do because it can take chances with such a potent offense. However, when that offense is grounded or the opposition is milking the clock, it can get tricky for the NFC North favorite.
Also, while the schedule shouldn’t be too tough (the Packers play the AFC West), it won’t be easy at times because they play the NFC West, with games at home against Seattle and St. Louis and road games at San Francisco and Arizona. In addition, the Packers will host the Cowboys and travel to Denver.
The verdict
Green Bay went undefeated at home last season. Don’t expect that to change, so bettors looking for the over need to find four wins on the road to satisfy the over. (Yes, we know Seattle goes to Green Bay, but we expect that to not end well for the Seahawks.)
Green Bay should be favored at Chicago in week 1 (since 2009, the Bears have won two out of 13 games against Green Bay), and again in week 4 against the 49ers. Troublesome games could be at Carolina and at Denver in back-to-back games in weeks 8 and 9, and games at Minnesota, Detroit and Arizona won’t feature a heavy favorite in either direction.
In week 15, Green Bay should be favored at Oakland, giving the Packers three games on the road in which it should win, with five as toss-ups. That’s enough incentive to take the over and watch Green Bay win the NFC North for a fifth straight season.
