Touchdowns weren’t hard to find for quarterbacks in week 12, with 10 players with three or more touchdown passes. Two of them, Russell Wilson and Matthew Stafford, had five touchdowns apiece.
With very little time left in the fantasy football season, making the right decision on a starting quarterback can be the difference between playing and ending the season. As seen from this past week, some of the quarterbacks who haven’t been great all year, like Ryan Fitzpatrick, Wilson, Stafford and Tyrod Taylor offered great plays, while others who are supposed to be good, like Aaron Rodgers, Eli Manning and Jay Cutler, didn’t produce much for fantasy owners.
Matchups are key this time of year, so pay attention to which quarterback offers the best chance at winning the week, not the season.
Here’s our start ’em, sit ’em guide for quarterbacks in week 13 of the fantasy football season.
Daily fantasy start of the week
Cam Newton vs. New Orleans Saints
No need to think too hard on this one. Newton will be expensive in DFS, so if you want a bargain, check out later this week for our bargain quarterbacks in DFS.
However, the best option will likely be Newton. The Carolina signal caller is experiencing a MVP-type season, and he’s doing it with his feet and legs. Last week’s numbers were down a bit, but that had more to do with Carolina’s defense scoring touchdowns than Newton’s inability to move the ball against the Cowboys.
The Panthers owned the Cowboys, but didn’t need much scoring since the game was well in hand in the early going.
Newton still has 20 or more points five times this season, and hasn’t turned over the ball since week 9. His receivers are getting better, eliminating his need to target Greg Olsen incessantly.
Against the Saints, Newton won’t have much resistance in doing what he wants on the ground or through the air. New Orleans owns the second-worst defense in total yards in the NFL and doesn’t stop anyone.
Newton should do what he wants against the disappointing Saints.
Start
Jay Cutler vs. San Francisco 49ers
Since week 3, the Chicago Bears are 5-3 and haven’t lost by more than field goal. That streak has been helped by Cutler, who has become a different quarterback in terms of keeping the ball away from the other team.
Since week 4, Cutler has seven turnovers compared to 13 touchdowns. He also has registered more than 280 total yards in three of the past four games.
His production, combined with playing the 49ers at home, is a good reason to start Cutler this week. San Francisco is fifth-worst against the pass, allowing 276.8 yards per game. Quarterbacks are averaging a QBR of more than 100 and San Francisco allows 8.1 yards per completion, the fourth-highest average in the NFL.
Those numbers don’t tell the whole story, though. San Francisco has been dreadful on the road against the pass. The 49ers are 0-5 away from home, and have allowed more than 300 yards passing in three of the five games. Quarterbacks also have gone for three touchdowns in three of those contests, too.
The Bears should dismantle San Francisco this week and Cutler should have a solid game.
Brock Osweiler vs. San Diego Chargers
We hate knee-jerk reactions.
However, in this case, we’re going with knee-jerk reaction.
Osweiler looked like a veteran against the New England Patriots on Sunday night and did enough to show us that he’s a better option than Peyton Manning. His performance against the Patriots on Sunday isn’t the only reason to give him the starting nod this week, though.
The Chargers have been awful against the pass and we don’t anticipate them to be much better this week. Don’t be fooled by San Diego’s performance this past week against Jacksvonville. The Chargers still allowed Jacksonville to drive up and down the field. The only issue with the Jaguars was they settled for field goals instead of touchdowns.
San Diego allows 8.2 yards per completion, the second-worst mark in the NFL. Quarterbacks average a QBR of more than 100 against San Diego, and unlike the 49ers, San Diego hasn’t been good at home this season.
The Chargers have dropped four straight home games, and during their six total home contests this season, San Diego has allowed quarterbacks to go for more than 250 yards passing in four games. Quarterbacks have thrown for 10 total touchdowns in those games, and that includes games against Mike Vick, Josh McCown and Alex Smith.
Those aren’t exactly household names in the fantasy football world. That’s why we’re banking on Osweiler this week.
Daily fantasy sit of the week
Drew Brees vs. Carolina Panthers
We’re not completely dismissing the Saints this week against the spread versus the Panthers. But we’re not going with Brees in DFS.
New Orleans struggles against teams that own a hefty pass rush. New Orleans proved that once again last week against Houston’s strong pass rush, and it will likely struggle again this week against the Panthers.
Carolina has the third-most sacks in the NFL with 33 and opposing quarterbacks average a QBR of only 68.7 per game.
That’s not a good sign for Brees, who is as hot and cold as any quarterback in the NFL. In his last two games, he hasn’t gone over 13 fantasy points. In the two games previous to those, he didn’t register less than 30.
He has a high upside, which is usually a good indicator for quality DFS showings. However, his price tag is too high to consider this week against the Panthers.
Sit
Phillip Rivers vs. Denver Broncos
We’re not giving the Chargers much credit for the victory against Jacksonville. Rivers has bucked the trend of the West Coast teams struggling on the East Coast consistently throughout his career, and we still can’t rely on any of the options available for him in that offense.
And he hasn’t done much when facing capable pass defenses this season.
In games against top-10 pass defenses, the Chargers are 0-3 and Rivers hasn’t done much. In two of those three games, he has less than 10 points, and in the third game, he registered 15 points.
However, he’s eaten up teams in the bottom half of the NFL in pass defense. The Chargers have actually faced five teams ranked in the bottom-10 in pass defense, and Rivers has registered some of his best numbers in those games. He hasn’t gone for less than 20 points in any of those five games, and he has 15 touchdown passes compared to only three interceptions in those games.
The Broncos rank No. 1 in the NFL in pass defense. Choose wisely if Rivers is on your team.
Russell Wilson vs. Minnesota Vikings
A disappointing season looks like it may not be completely lost for Wilson owners. During the previous two games, he’s gone for 25 and 35 points respectively.
So why are we sitting him this week?
First, one of his top targets Jimmy Graham is lost for the season. Secondly, the Vikings defense is a top-10 pass defense and gets after the quarterback. Don’t anticipate Wilson to have many places to run in the early afternoon window.
Lastly, Wilson has been tearing up bad pass defenses.
During the last two weeks, the Seahawks have torched the Steelers and 49ers. The teams rank third and fifth, respectively, from the bottom in pass defense.
Against teams with a pulse against the pass, Wilson hasn’t reached over 20 points in fantasy. We’re avoiding both quarterbacks in this game, since we believe this will be more about running the football and defense, than quality quarterback play.
