If running backs once again showed in week 15 why they were important in fantasy football, the wide receiver position showed it is still the most unpredictable.
Brandin Cooks had a monster outing in week 15, going for 30 fantasy points, but that isn’t the norm for him. He’s had more single-digit fantasy days than double-digit ones, despite being the No. 1 receiver on the high-flying Saints.
That’s pretty much regular showings for wide receivers this season. Big-name wide receivers can put up big numbers, but they also can be duds. That’s what makes the wide receiver position one that I will likely avoid in the first round of the 2017 fantasy football draft.
With championship week upon us, here’s the week 16 wide receivers start ’em, sit ’em guide.
Start
Golden Tate vs. Dallas Cowboys
Dallas is terrible against the pass and in recent weeks, Tate has been a machine in the targets department.
He’s been in double-digits in targets in the last three weeks, going for 34 targets in the previous three contests. It’s not just that he’s garnering the targets. He’s producing with those looks, generating 22 catches for 325 yards. He only has one touchdown in that span, but with that much production, you can’t keep him on your bench for this week.
He’s been fairly inconsistent this year, but he’s finally finding his footing for the Lions as the fantasy football season comes to a close.
The Cowboys are seventh-worst against the pass this season in the NFL. I expect the Lions to have plenty of success in week 16 against Dallas’s below-average pass defense, thus giving Tate a solid chance at being a WR1.
DeAndre Hopkins vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Welcome back target-monster Hopkins.
This has been a disappointing season for Hopkins thanks to Brock Osweiler being a bottom-five starting quarterback in the NFL. Brian Hoyer wasn’t good last season for the Texans, but he would at least feed Hopkins at least more than 10 times per game.
Tom Savage isn’t going to break any records for success, but it does appear that Hopkins can once again be considered a WR1.
He was targeted 17 times during week 15’s victory against Jacksonville. He caught eight of those targets for 87 yards. That should give fantasy owners more hope for Hopkins to return to his level of production from last season.
The Bengals are a top-half pass defense, but the Texans did major work last week against Jacksonville’s top-five pass defense. The Bengals may find it tough to be motivated for this one anyway, since Cincinnati is in a place they’re unfamiliar with. If Hopkins can attract another double-digit worth of targets, he’s a solid bet for having a breakout performance.
Allen Robinson vs. Tennessee Titans
This week must be all about how some of the highest-drafted wide receivers will finally pay dividends for fantasy football owners.
Robinson has likely been one of the biggest disappointments among wide receivers. He was supposed to be a solid WR1 each week, but he’s turned into a desperate WR3 for many fantasy owners. However, this week, he should be able to muster some fantasy points from a Tennessee secondary that is among the worst in the NFL.
The Titans own the third-worst pass defense in the NFL. They also allow 26 fantasy points per game against opposing wide receivers, the fourth-worst mark in the NFL.
Even though I have zero confidence in Blake Bortles, I anticipate Robinson to have a decent day. He had eight targets in week 15, to go along with 10 targets in week 13. The catches and production are low, but with that amount of targets, I still have a chance for some decent production if Bortles can figure out how to make an accurate throw.
I’m trusting Robinson in my lineup; not as WR1, but as a WR2.
Sit
Larry Fitzgerald vs. Seattle Seahawks
My faith in Carson Palmer on the road is only slightly above my faith in Bortles.
Palmer has been a different quarterback on the road, affecting all skill position players, except for David Johnson. In the last three road games, Fitzgerald has been almost non-existent.
He is barely in double-digits combined for the three games in fantasy scoring and has only 13 catches for 128 yards with no touchdowns in those contests.
And even though the Cardinals aren’t traveling to the East Coast, where they’ve been terrible this season, I still anticipate a less-than-stellar performance from Arizona’s offense.
The Seahawks are a top-10 pass defense and are even better at home. I’m sitting Fitzgerald if I have options.
Tyreek Hill vs. Denver Broncos
Jeremy Maclin’s presence back in Kansas City’s lineup had a drastic effect on Hill.
Hill still produced for fantasy owners in week 15 thanks to a 68-yard rushing touchdown. The only issue, that was the only thing he did in week 15. He had zero catches on only three targets.
With Maclin back in the lineup, Hill is not a trusting option at wide receiver. He has never been the major target receiver, but his big-play abilities have kept fantasy owners afloat in recent weeks.
But with Denver likely putting a major emphasis on him this week thanks to Hill’s breakout performance earlier this season against Denver, I doubt Hill will have a major impact. He’s not even in the WR3 discussion this week.
Mike Wallace vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Wallace had major success against Pittsburgh in the first meeting. You shouldn’t consider that a reason to start him in week 16.
Wallace has been underwhelming in recent weeks. He hasn’t gotten out of single-digits in fantasy scoring since week 9, and his targets rarely sneak above seven.
He’s a boom or bust receiver, who doesn’t have much boom at the moment. The Ravens are running the football more in recent weeks, which is taking away some work from wide receivers who have benefited from the high-volume passing attack this season.
The Steelers have actually been better in recent weeks against the pass, too. I expect that to once again be the case in week 16. Wallace will be more of a bust than boom in week 16.
