The NFL draft is officially behind us, so now it’s time to see which teams can make a run at the Super Bowl.
While the NFL regular season and playoffs are two of the hottest items in sports, oddsmakers are expecting a dull run through the latter part of 2017.
Thanks in part to big-time offseason additions Brandin Cooks and Stephon Gilmore, to go along with an already impressive roster, the New England Patriots are so far ahead of the rest of the NFL in terms of Super Bowl odds, it would be a waste to even pick them.
Oddsmakers have the Patriots at +350 to win the Super Bowl. To show how ridiculous that number is, the next-best bet in the entire NFL (not just the AFC) is +1200. Much of that is due to the overall weakness of the AFC. Of the top-six teams in Super Bowl odds, only two of them reside in the AFC, with the Oakland Raiders owning odds at +1200.
The other four are all from the NFC, all listed at +1200, featuring Seattle, Green Bay, Dallas and Atlanta.
What teams are best prepared to make a run? Here are my best value picks to win Super Bowl LII.
Houston Texans, +1600
Houston has a stacked roster. They have weapons and the No. 1 defense from a year ago. And that defense did its work last year without J.J. Watt.
So I get the best pass rusher back on a defense that already is the league’s best, and I have an offense that should be improved. DeAndre Hopkins and Lamar Miller are toward the top of their respective positions in terms of talent.
The biggest hurdle to overcome for Houston is the offensive line play, which it didn’t address in the draft. I was a bit surprised by this move, but the Texans may be thinking about the injuries that hurt them last year, and hoping a healthier offensive line will create more space for their playmakers.
The Texans are a step away from being a top-tier seed in the NFL playoffs. A new quarterback and a defense that is among the league’s best should help me forget about Houston’s nine wins from a year ago that came by a touchdown or less. That’s usually a recipe for disaster in the next year, since most NFL teams even out their record in close games over time.
Houston should be better this year and it still plays in a weaker division. Now’s the time to make a run, and with this kind of value, the Texans would be a solid pick to win the Super Bowl.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, +4000
Tampa Bay got better in the draft. And that should be a scary sign for any team in the NFC South, including Atlanta.
The Buccaneers are really close to being a good NFL team. Jameis Winston is entering his third season and the weapons keep getting better, with Doug Martin, DeSean Jackson and Mike Evans, and now the best tight end from the draft, O.J. Howard, who will have an immediate impact.
The defense was the problem for the first part of last year, but the Bucs turned a switch in November, and showed they can compete on that side of the ball.
All signs are pointing in the right direction for Tampa Bay, and in the wide open NFC, Tampa Bay is my favorite value pick going forward in the 2017 season.
