We’re kicking ourselves over our Survivor pick last week. We assume many of you are, too.
New Orleans went off as a 10-point favorite against Tampa Bay and proceeded to lose. It’s the sixth straight home loss for the Saints, which at one time, couldn’t lose at home. It’s been all downhill for the Saints since it lost a home game against San Francisco last year on Nov. 9.
The loss came in overtime and the Saints actually completed a last-second Hail Mary to win the game in regulation, but it was called back due to offensive pass interference. How quickly life can change in the NFL.
But enough about the Saints.
We’re 1-1 in our picks, but if you followed our advice on our sleeper — Carolina — or our to be careful pick of Miami, which lost to Jacksonville, you’re still in your Survivor league.
Here’s our best bet for your Survivor league in week 3 of the NFL season.
Best bet
Seattle Seahawks
Pretty much every person in the nation will take Seattle in their Survivor league. That’s OK, since it’s better to be safe, than sorry.
The Seahawks will host Chicago and are two-touchdown favorites. The Bears are traveling to Seattle at the wrong time for many reasons.
The Bears will likely start backup Jimmy Clausen on a team that hasn’t shown the ability to stop anyone or consistently move the ball. The Seahawks should feature razor-sharp focus due to its 0-2 record.
And Kam Chancellor is coming back. That latter reason, Chancellor’s absence, appeared to wear on the Seahawks mentally, as it became a weekly excuse for not playing well on defense. With his return, the Seahawks’ players should be more prepared in the mental aspect, which in turn, creates even more problems for Chicago.
There’s not a ton of worry with this pick, other than the fact we’re wasting the two-time defending NFC champions in week 3. But let’s take a closer look at the upcoming schedule.
Heading into a bye week in week 9, the Seahawks will host Detroit and Carolina, and will travel to Cincinnati, San Francisco and Dallas. After the bye week, Seattle will host Arizona, San Francisco and Pittsburgh, and will travel to Minnesota and Baltimore, before hosting Cleveland on Dec. 20.
The Seahawks are likely to win some of those games, but they’re not near as likely as the matchup at home against the Bears. We doubt any of those games will feature double-digit spreads.
If you’re looking for the safest pick, take Seattle.
Sleeper
Cleveland Browns
How often are you going to take the Cleveland Browns?
The answer is likely never.
But this week provides an opportunity to trust Cleveland. Oakland is traveling for the first time this season, and so far, the Raiders defense hasn’t shown up for the 2015 season.
That’s a bad sign when going on the road.
Cleveland also looked decent last week against an improved Tennessee team. The pass defense is still above-average, and Oakland likes to pass. We like the matchup of the Browns’ secondary against Oakland’s wide receivers.
Don’t dismiss the letdown factor, either. Oakland isn’t used to pulling off upsets, and it did just that last week against Baltimore. Now, the Raiders will take their youth movement on the road, and we’re not sold on them yet.
If you’re looking to go under-the-radar in your Survivor league, Cleveland would be a good pick as a straight-up winner.
Be careful
New York Jets
We’re all excited about the new and improved New York Jets. The defense is outstanding and the offense is at least showing signs of being competent.
Slow down the hype train for a minute.
The Jets are still facing a Philadelphia team that has won 10 games each year for the past two seasons. We understand that Philadelphia has looked awful in the first two weeks, but this is the NFL.
Teams can look horrendous for weeks at a time, and then change overnight.
It’s still only week 3, so don’t give up on the Eagles yet, or throw a Super Bowl party for the Jets. New York has been untested in either game, allowing its offense to do what it does best — run the ball and milk clock.
If the Eagles can figure out its offense and put pressure on the Jets to score, that should tell us more about where both of these teams are early in the season. Before trying to pull one over on the rest of your league, be careful when choosing the Jets this weekend.
