It wasn’t easy for anyone still alive in Survivor pools. Week 10 teams with big spreads were victims of upsets.
Green Bay as a double-digit favorite was the biggest upset at home against Detroit. But the Packers weren’t the only ones that were a hot pick that didn’t pan out.
The Denver Broncos, St. Louis Rams and Philadelphia Eagles were all near touchdown favorites that lost Sunday. Other favorites that lost were the New York Jets, New Orleans Saints, Baltimore Ravens and Oakland Raiders.
So even though we bombed with our Denver pick, we’re assuming many of the other picks also bombed. And this late in the season, the pool is likely small, giving many hope that despite a loss, everyone else in the pool may have picked a wrong team, too.
We’re thinking week 11 may be more favorable to the favorite, giving those still alive in the Survivor pool hope that there’s another week.
Best Bet
Carolina Panthers
If you haven’t chosen the Panthers yet, it’s time to use them.
We’ve steered clear from Carolina since the matchups didn’t always represent a slam dunk. Only twice this season have the Panthers been more than a touchdown favorite this season. This past week would have been a good opportunity to take Carolina, but we were worried about Carolina crashing down to earth after experiencing three big games in a row.
It’s not that we haven’t been sold on Carolina. We’ve made a nice living this season backing the Panthers, based on low expectations by oddsmakers and Carolina able to cover spreads on a consistent basis.
This week’s matchup against Washington shouldn’t be a problem for the Panthers. Washington is coming off a big win against New Orleans, but let’s face it, the Saints don’t play any defense. That was on full display again versus the Redskins.
And the big win is par for the course for the Redskins. Overall for the season, Washington is 4-5. On the road, the Redskins are 0-4, losing by an average of 12 points per game. The offense doesn’t move the ball nearly as well on the road and Washington is atrocious at stopping what Carolina does best.
The Redskins own the third-worst rushing defense, allowing 135 yards per game on the ground. The Panthers, meanwhile, rush for almost 140 yards per game, good enough for the second-best mark in the NFL.
Forget about this past week for the Redskins. They won’t be able to keep up with Cam and Carolina.
Sleeper Pick
Jacksonville Jaguars
We’re fairly confident in the Jaguars in this game. We’ve been all over the Jaguars in handicapping, riding a 3-0 ATS streak in the past three games.
During that time period, Jacksonville is 2-1 straight up, too, and in this matchup, Jacksonville gets the edge by hosting a Thursday night game.
That doesn’t always work out for the home team, but more often than not, the home team has a major advantage over the road team.
And the road team is a team that hasn’t had much success moving the ball. Let’s take out the road victory against New Orleans two weeks ago, and the Titans are having a tough time scoring in double digits.
Here’s a list of the Titans’ final scores in the last six weeks – 13, 10, 7, 6, 34 (how bad is New Orleans’ defense?), and 10. Other than that aforementioned New Orelans game, Tennessee is averaging 9.2 points per game. That’s awful.
The Jaguars, on the other hand, are more than competent on the offensive side of the ball. Quarterback Blake Bortles has more than 300 yards passing in three of his past five games and he has 13 touchdown passes in his last five games. We want him to take care of the ball more (he has seven interceptions in his last four games), but Bortles should be able to rely on the run game against the Titans, as Tennessee allows 112 yards per game on the ground.
We like Jacksonville to cover and to win straight up this week on a Thursday night.
Be Careful
Philadelphia Eagles
We can’t wrap our head around the Eagles. On paper, Philadelphia should throttle Tampa Bay.
But the Eagles should have beaten Miami, too.
Philadelphia’s offense is a train wreck and Tampa Bay is stout against the run, allowing only 3.6 yards per carry, the third-best mark in the NFL.
And if the Eagles can’t run the ball, then the Eagles punt…a lot.
We can’t imagine the Buccaneers will move the ball well enough to win, but we’ve so many strange things happen this season, especially with the Eagles, that we wouldn’t be surprised with anything that happens in this game.
We can’t trust Philadelphia, so that’s why we’re passing on the Eagles this week.
